000 AXNT20 KNHC 211155 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 21/1200 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 19.9N 68.7W or about 82 nm NNW of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present movement of Maria is northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 135 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 175 nm of the center. The eye of Hurricane Maria will continue to pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic today. Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Friday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. At 21/1200 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 130 nm SE of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.6N 68.1W, stationary. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails mainly in the NW quadrant of the storm from 39N to 44N between 67W and 74W. Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southeast New England for the next several days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 18N39W to 07N38W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear and is in an environment of moderate moisture as indicated by CIRA LPW and SSMI TPW imagery. However, some Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to the west environment of the wave is evident in enhanced IR imagery and CIRA LPW imagery. Upper level diffluence support scattered moderate convection from 07N to 17N between 33W and 44W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N17W to 12N30W to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N51W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate/isolated strong convection is occurring off of the coast of Africa from 05N to 11N E of 21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface low pressure dominate the Gulf SW waters and the Yucatan Peninsula with a trough extending from 21N92W to southern Guatemala supporting scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh winds are associated with this surface trough. In the SE basin, a 1013 mb low is located near 25N86W, which is forecast to dissipate during the next couple of hours. Otherwise, a surface ridge over the SE CONUS extends to the NE Gulf where it is anchored by a 1016 mb high near 28N88W. An upper level ridge over the basin and dry air subsidence support fair weather elsewhere in the basin. Easterly light to moderate winds are across much of the Gulf. Expect little change over the next 48 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... The core of Hurricane Maria is over Atlc waters NE of eastern Dominican Republic, however tropical storm winds still reach a portion of NW Puerto Rico. Scattered heavy showers and tstms continue over the western half of Puerto Rico while numerous heavy showers are across the Mona Passage and the eastern half of the Dominican Republic. Showers over Puerto Rico are likely to continue through this evening potentially generating flash floods. See the special features section for further details. Strong winds and high seas associated with Maria prevail in the NE Caribbean mainly N of 16N. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica, Panama through Colombia supporting isolated showers and tstms in the SW Caribbean S of 15N W of 79W. Winds and seas associated with Maria will gradually diminish through early Friday as the cyclone moves farther NW over the SW N Atlc waters. ...HISPANIOLA... A hurricane warning prevails for the northern Dominican Republic while a tropical storm warning is along the southern region. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory. Numerous strong convection is occuring over the E Dominican Republic spreading across the rest of the Island as Maria continuen to move NW over SW N Atlc waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1011 mb low - the remnants of Lee - is located near 19N48W. No significant deep convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a low chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 30N45W to 23N48W, which is being supported by an upper-level trough. Scattered showers and tstms are observed from 21N to 31N between 40W and 49W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos