000 AXNT20 KNHC 210005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 21/0000 UTC, Hurricane Maria is located near 18.9N 67.5W or about 48 nm ENE of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. The present movement of Maria is northwest at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, Category 2. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this evening. The core will then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. At 21/0000 UTC, Tropical Storm Jose is located about 125 nm SSE of Nantucket, Massachusetts near 39.4N 68.6W, moving northeast at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the NW quadrant of the storm from 39N-44N between 67W-73W. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is expected to meander off the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the East Atlantic with axis near 35W from about 06N to 21N, moving westward at about 20 kt. The wave is well-defined in both the SUNY-Albany 700 mb trough diagnostics as well as a maxima in the total precipitable water imagery on the east side of the wave axis. The wave also has a surface trough as observed by the earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring between 10N and 15N within 180 nm east of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over Central America with the axis near 88W from about 10N to 20N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. The wave is apparent in the SUNY-Albany 700 mb trough diagnostics, but not distinguishable in the total precipitable water imagery. There may be a surface trough associated with the wave as well, though it is difficult to disentangle it from the diurnal trough setting up over the Yucatan. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection has been developing in the last few hours over Central America south of 17N within 180 nm of the axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 12N27W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 10N32W. The ITCZ breaks at the tropical wave near 35W and then starts again at 08N39W to 08N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the ITCZ betwen 38W and 43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring off of the coast of Guinea north of 08N east of 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak trough of low pressure extends from the central Florida peninsula near 27N82W to 26N87W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm of the trough. Elsewhere no significant convection is occurring. Winds are weak and easterly across the Gulf this evening. Expect little change over the next 48 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... the core of dangerout Hurricane maria is gradually moving away from Puerto Rico. Conditions are now deteriorating over eastern Dominican Republic. See the special features section for further details. The eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and Panama. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle trade winds west of 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... A hurricane warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border with Haiti as well as from west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque. A hurricane watch is in effect for Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4-6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1-3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over E Hispaniola E of 70W, spreading W, due to Maria. Expect the entire island to be under rainbands over the the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Maria and Tropical Storm Jose. A 1008 mb low - the remnants of Lee - is located near 18N47W. No significant deep convection is currently occurring with this low and it has a Low chance of redevelopment as a tropical cyclone in the next two days. A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 31N46W to 23N47W in association with an upper-level trough. Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection is observed within 300 nm east of the trough. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Landsea