000 AXNT20 KNHC 190607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 207 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 19/0600 UTC, Category 4 Hurricane Maria is located near 15.7N 61.9W or about 30 nm WNW of Dominica and 210 nm SE of St. Croix, moving WNW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 210 nm of the center in all quadrants. The eye of Maria will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday and approach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. At 19/0300 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 200 nm east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 35.2N 71.3W, moving N at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm N of the center of Jose. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 30N to 40N between 62W and 76W. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula early Tuesday, and pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 19/0300 UTC, the remnants of Tropical Depression Lee are located near 15.1N 43.0W or about 1085 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Numerous strong convection and scattered tstms are within 135 nm E of the low center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 11N to 16N between 40W and 44W. For the last advisory on Lee, please see the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending from 21N78W to 09N82W, moving west at about 15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate vertical wind shear and CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the central wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and divergent flow aloft support scattered showers and tstms in the northern wave environment N of 19N between 74W and 82W, and in the southern wave environment S of 12N between 76W and 84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near 21N17W to 16N22W to 09N27W. Aside from the convection associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Lee, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N E of 25W associated with a tropical wave coming off the coast of W Africa. Otherwise, similar convection is from 05N to 09N between 30W and 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico basin with light and variable winds over most of the basin with the exception of moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of the coast of Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the E Bay of Campeche. Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are associated with the northern region of a tropical wave moving over EPAC waters. Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence continue to support clear skies, except for scattered showers over the E Bay of Campeche associated with the tropical wave. Surface high pressure will dominate across the basin through Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Major Hurricane Maria is moving across the central Lesser Antilles. Maria is forecast to move NW and make landfall in Puerto Rico Wednesday morning. Please see special features for further details. The remaining weather in the basin is associated with a tropical wave moving across the W Caribbean waters. See the tropical waves section for more information. Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient due to Hurricanes Maria and Jose allow for light to gentle trades W of 67W. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west with minimal convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage and southern Haiti adjacent waters. Mostly fair weather prevails across the island. Hurricane Maria is forecast to approach the Island Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria and the remnants of T. D. Lee. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered north of the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos