000 AXNT20 KNHC 181734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 18/1500 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 230 nm east- southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 33.9N 71.1W, moving north at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Convection associated with Jose is north of the discussion area. Jose is forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone through Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 18/1500 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located about 52 nm east of Martinique near 14.7N 60.1W, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 07N-18N between 54W-64W. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maria is forecast to intensify further more over the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. At 18/1500 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 920 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 14.1N 40.6W, moving west- northwest at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is displaced east of the center within 300 nm of 14N40W. Lee will slowly weaken during the next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with its axis from 19N76W to 09N76W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered moderate convection associated with this wave is observed between 75W-82W. A tropical wave is moving across southern Mexico with its axis from 22N93W to 12N94W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of high moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the southern portion of the wave affecting the EPAC waters. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near 19N16W to 14N34W. No significant convection is related to this feature at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the basin. At upper levels, an anticyclone is over the western Gulf near 25N95W. An upper-level trough is over the east Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence and minimal convection is over the region. Expect scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche today as the tropical waves moves through. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Maria is approaching the eastern Caribbean enhancing convection east of 63W. Please see the section above for details. A tropical wave is across the central Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. Moderate trades prevail across most of the basin, strongest in the south-central Caribbean. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west with minimal convection. Hurricane Maria is expected to move into the northeast Caribbean and head toward Puerto Rico during the next 48-72 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. Expect for diurnal convection to develop each afternoon over the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria and T.D. Lee. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered north of the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA