000 AXNT20 KNHC 181045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 18/0900 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 245 nm east- southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 33.0N 71.4W, moving north at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Convection associated with Jose is north of the discussion area. Jose is forecast to weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone through Wednesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 18/0900 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located about 85 nm east of Martinique near 14.6N 59.5W, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N-16.5N between 56W-61W. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maria is forecast to intensify further over the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. At 18/0900 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 920 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 14.1N 39.8W, moving west- northwest at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is displaced east of the center within 60 nm of 14N38W. Lee will slowly weaken during the next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis along 75W south of 19N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Isolated convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is moving across Central America with an axis along 91W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of high moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate convection is over Central America from Yucatan to El Salvador. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near 19N16W to 11N21W to 07N29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 14W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is over the northern Gulf of Mexico. In upper levels, an anticyclone is over the W Gulf near 25N95W. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence and minimal convection prevail over the region. Expect scattered showers over Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche today from a passing tropical wave. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 75W. See section above for details. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the Pacific reaches the coast of Colombia, and is producing scattered showers in the southwest Caribbean south of 11N. An area of scattered moderate convection is from 13N-15N between 89W-91W. Moderate trade winds prevail across most of the basin, strongest in the south-central Caribbean. Expect the tropical wave to continue moving west with minimal convection. Hurricane Maria is expected to move into the northeast Caribbean and head toward Puerto Rico during the next 48-72 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated convection is near the northern coast of the island. Expect diurnal convection to develop each afternoon over the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, Hurricane Maria and T.D. Lee. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N40W to 24N41W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-31N between 36W-39W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell