000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 18/0300 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 265 nm southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 32.2N 71.6W, moving north at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Convection associated with Jose is mainly north of 31N. Jose is forecast to gradually weaken, but remain a hurricane through Tuesday. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 18/0600 UTC, Hurricane Maria was located about 80 nm north- northeast of Barbados near 14.4N 59.0W, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 95 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 13N-15N between 57W-60W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 12N-16N between 55W-61W. Hurricane warnings are in effect for the northern Leeward Islands. Maria is forecast to intensify further over the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. At 18/0300 UTC, Tropical Depression Lee was located about 850 nm west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 13.6N 38.5W, moving west northwest at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is displaced southeast of the center. Lee will slowly weaken during the next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with an axis along 74W south of 19N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is moving across Central America with an axis along 90W, moving west at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of high moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate convection is over Central America from Honduras to Costa Rica. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 14N16W to 08N21W to 07N29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 18W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico. In upper levels, an anticyclone is over the W Gulf near 25N95W. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 80W. Strong subsidence and minimal convection prevail over the entire region. Expect scattered showers over Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche during the next 24 hours mostly due to a tropical wave. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 74W. See the section above for details. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the Pacific reaches the coast of Colombia, and producing scattered showers in the southwest Caribbean south of 11N. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin, with strongest winds in the central Caribbean. Expect for the tropical waves to continue moving west with minimal convection. Hurricane Maria is expected to move into the northeast Caribbean and head toward Puerto Rico during the next 48-72 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection is over the northern coast of the island. Expect diurnal convection to develop each afternoon over the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, T.D. Lee and Hurricane Maria. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N39W to 24N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-31N between 37W-40W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell