000 AXNT20 KNHC 171035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 17/0900 UTC, Hurricane Jose was located about 365 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 30.0N 71.7W, moving north at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 29N-32N between 69W-75W. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 17/0900 UTC, Tropical Storm Lee was located about 685 nm west- southwest of the Cape Verde Islands near 13.0N 35.4W, moving west at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate convection is mainly south of the center within 60 nm of 11.5N35W. Lee is expected to move west-northwest with little change in intensity the next 24-48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. At 17/0900 UTC, Tropical Storm Maria was located about 400 nm ESE of the Lesser Antilles near 13.0N 54.9W, moving west at 13 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection in spiral bands that extend outward up to 200 nm from the center. Maria is forecast to intensify, and become a hurricane in the next 12-24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is along 70W south of 21N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Minimal convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave moving into Central America is along 86W south of 22N, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Isolated convection is associated with this wave. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 07N17W to 07N25W to 10N29W. Scattered moderate convection is along the trough axis between 15W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 27N93W to 21N94W. Isolated showers are near the trough axis. In the upper levels, an upper level high is over the W Gulf near 22N97W with strong subsidence. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 85W. Minimal shower activity is associated with the upper trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean. See above. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough in the Pacific reaches the NW coast of Colombia and is producing isolated moderate convection in the SW Caribbean. 10-20 kt winds prevail in the Caribbean, with strongest winds in the central Caribbean. Expect the tropical waves to continue moving west with scattered showers. T.S. Maria is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane, with marine conditions deteriorating Mon and Tue. ...HISPANIOLA... Convective activity is minimal over Hispaniola. Expect diurnal convection to develop in the afternoon hours the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, T.S. Lee and T.S. Maria. A surface trough extends south of a stationary front N of the area from 31N37W to 24N40W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 34N52W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell