000 AXNT20 KNHC 162335 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 735 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 16/2100 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 421 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 28.9N 71.9W, moving north at 5 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 28N-31N between 70W-73W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 27N-32N between 68W-73W. Slight intensification is expected during the next 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 16/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Lee is located about 625 nm west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near 12.6N 34.2W, moving west at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 10N-13N between 33W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 09N-13N between 33W-37W. Lee is expected to continue moving west through the weekend, then move west-northwest early next week. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. At 16/2100 UTC, Tropical Storm Maria is located about 538 nm ESE of the Lesser Antilles, near 12.3N 52.6W, moving west a 17 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Maria is forecast to intensify to a hurricane in 24 hours. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 21N67W to 10N67W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb trough is also seen in model guidance. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending from 22N83W to 11N84W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of strong moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Widely scattered moderate convection is over Central America from Honduras to Panama. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 11N20W to 15N27W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Lee and T.S. Maria, Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 08N-12N between 12W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the W Gulf of Mexico from 27N92W to 21N95W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough axis. In the upper levels, an upper level high is over the W Gulf near 22N97W with strong subsidence. An upper level trough is over the E Gulf with axis along 85W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is supporting scattered showers over the E Gulf from 24N-32N between 82W-87W. Expect the upper level trough to move E to Florida over the next 24 hours. Expect showers to persist over the W Gulf over the next 24 hours. Also expect showers over S Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean waters. See above. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough reaches the NW coast of Colombia and is producing scattered scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. 10-20 kt surface winds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds over the central Caribbean. Expect for the tropical waves to continue moving west with scattered showers. Also expect T.S. Maria to approach the Lesser Antilles near 15N60W in 48 hours as a Hurricane. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are presently over Hispaniola. Expect diurnal convection to develop in the afternoon hours for the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, T.S. Lee and T.S. Maria. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 36N51W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa