000 AXNT20 KNHC 161805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 16/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose was located about 417 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 28.8N 72.2W, moving northwest at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 26N-31N between 67W-74W. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 24-48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 16/1500 UTC, the Tropical Depression Fourteen was transitioned to T.S. Lee, located about 569 nm west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with center near 12.5N 33.1W, moving west at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 30W-37W. Lee is expected to continue moving west through the weekend, then move west-northwest early next week. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. At 16/1800 UTC, the Potential T.C. 15 has intensified and now is T.D. 15, centered near 11.9N 51.6W, moving west a 17 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-16N between 46W-54W. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the east Caribbean has an axis extending from 22N65W to 11N65W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted in SSMI TPW imagery. A sharp 700 mb trough is also seen in model guidance and latest observations. No significant convection is related to the wave at this time. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean with an axis extending from 22N82W to 11N82W is moving west at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both evident. Scattered moderate convection prevails where the axis meets the monsoon trough mainly south of 12N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to 12N27W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Lee and the Potential T.C. 15, no significant convection is observed at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf waters. The only area with scattered showers remains in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends from 27N87W to 24N92W. At upper levels, an anticyclone is developing across the western Gulf waters and extending across the basin. This pattern will continue through the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. The eastern extension of the E Pacific's monsoon trough reaches the southern Caribbean enhacing convection south of 12N between 80W-84W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across most of the basin except between 66W-74W where moderate to fresh easterlies prevail. Expect for the tropical waves to continue moving west with scattered showers. The now T.D. Maria will approach the Lesser Antilles enhancing winds/seas. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are observed over the southern portion of the island at this time. Expect diurnal convection to develop in the afternoon hours for the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, T.S. Lee and T.D 15. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 37N48W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA