000 AXNT20 KNHC 160538 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 16/0300 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose was located about 435 nm SW of Bermuda near 27.4N 71.0W, moving NW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 25N-30N between 68W-72W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24-48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 16/0300 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located about 435 nm WSW of the Cape Verde Islands near 12.8N 30.7W, moving WNW at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate strong convection is from 07N- 12N between 29W-36W. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Please see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave in the central Atlc extending from 16N44W to 06N47W, with a 1011 mb surface low analyzed along the wave near 11.5N 46W, is moving W at 20 kt. The wave is in a region of very deep moisture noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 09N-15N between 44W-50W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend. There is a high chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles has an axis extending from 23N60W to 12N62W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A sharp 700 mb trough is also seen. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 15N-18N between 58W-62W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 21N77W to 10N79W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both seen. Scattered moderate convection is over N Colombia and E Panama. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 13N28W. Aside from the convection related to T.D. Fourteen and the two tropical waves, widely scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N-05N between 16W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 28N90.5W to 22N91.5W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 92W. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the E Gulf within 120 nm of a line from 28N86W to 20N91W. Expect the upper level trough to move E to Florida over the next 48 hours, with convection persisting over the E Gulf during the next 48 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters, and another wave is passing the Lesser Antilles, as noted above. The eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough reaches the NW coast of Colombia and is producing scattered scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Otherwise, the outer rain bands associated with Hurricane Jose support widely scattered showers in the central Caribbean, including Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, between 65W-73W. Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due to a weak surface pressure gradient. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are presently over Hispaniola, enhanced by inflow into Hurricane Jose located far to the north. Expect convection to continue over the island for the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, T.D. Fourteen, and a tropical wave over the central Atlc with the potential to become a tropical cyclone this weekend. Otherwise, a weakening cold front that extends southward from 31N36W to 26N38W is expected to dissipate overnight. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface ridge. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell