000 AXNT20 KNHC 151803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 15/1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Jose is around 420 nm SW of Bermuda near 26.5N 69.4W, moving NW at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection is present from 25N to 27N between 68W and 70W. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are elsewhere from 23N to 30N between 66W and 72W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 15/1500 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is around 370 nm SW of the Cape Verde Islands near 11.4N 28.3, moving WNW at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 26W and 38W. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 14N42W to 04N44W, moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of low to moderate vertical wind shear, deep-layer moisture and is underneath a diffluent environment aloft. However, some dry air intrusion is suggested in the wave WNW environment by the TPW/LPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 38W and 51W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form in 2 or 3 days. There is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic to the east of the Lesser Antilles with axis extending from 22N57W to 11N59W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate to strong vertical wind shear, and dry air is present in most of the wave environment as indicated by TPW/LPW imagery. Shallow moisture and middle level diffluent flow in the SE environment of the wave support scattered moderate convection from 14N to 18N between 55W and 59W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 19N75W to 10N77W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however water vapor imagery show this wave is under dry subsident air, which is limiting the convection to isolated showers within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from the African coast near 12N17W to 13N22W. The ITCZ begins near 09N46W and continues to 08N60W. Aside from the convection related to T.D. Fourteen and the two tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 33W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough prevails across the western half of the Gulf with a base reaching SSW to the Bay of Campeche. This trough aloft support a surface trough that extends from 27N88W to 18N94W. Diffluent flow to the E of the upper trough along with moisture advection from the Caribbean by SSE flow continue to support scattered heavy showers and tstms in the NE basin N of 23N between 84W and 91W. Strong dry air subsidence W of 90W support clear skies. Surface ridging is forecast to establish late Saturday through early next week. Light to moderate SSE flow is forecast during that period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave continue to move across the central Caribbean waters, however not significant convection is associated with it due to dry subsident air in this region. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for details. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough reaches the NW coast of Colombia and support numerous heavy showers and isolated tstms in the SW basin S of 11N between 77W and 81W. Scattered showers and tstms are elsewhere S of 13N. Otherwise, moist outflow from Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW Atlc support scattered showers and tstms in the NE Caribbean N of 14N between 64W and 72W, including Puerto Rico where isolated showers and tstms are noted. Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due to the weak pressure gradient left by T.S. Jose. These winds will pick up to fresh speeds from east to west later today as a tropical wave enter the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and tstms are affecting mainly southern Hispaniola while moist outflow from Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW Atlc support scattered showers and tstms over the Island adjacent waters N of 14N between 67W and 73W. Showers and tstms will continue through late Sunday as T.S. Jose moves NW over the W Atlc waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Jose, T.D. Fourteen, and a tropical wave over the central Atlc with potential to become a tropical cyclone the next two days. Otherwise, a dissipating stationary front curves SW from 30N40W to 23N54W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface ridge. The front is forecast to dissipate tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos