000 AXNT20 KNHC 150533 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 133 AM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 15/0300 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Jose is around 440 nm SSW of Bermuda near 25.5N 68.0W, moving WNW at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 90 nm of the center. Some restrengthening is forecast today, and Jose will likely become a hurricane again. Jose is expected to gradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low pressure center near 10N25W. The wave axis extends from 16N25W to the low to 05N24W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Sharp 700 mb troughing and a 700 mb low is also noted. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found in the west semicircle within 150 nm and in the east semicircle within 90 nm of the center of the low. There is a high chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next two days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the central Atlc has an axis extending from 15N34W to 03N36W, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is in a region of very deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N and 13N between 36W and 45W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave currently approaching the Windward and Leeward Islands has an axis extending from 19N55W to 11N55W, moving west around 15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A modest 700 mb trough coincides with the position of the tropical wave in initial 700 nm wind fields. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection occurring from 15N to 16N between 54W and 56W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 19N73W to 08N75W, moving W at around 5 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and well defined 700 mb trough both coincide with the position of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from 15N to 17N between 65W and 69W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from Senegal on the African coast near 15N17W to low pres 1012 mb centered near 10N25W to 11N30W to 06N42W. The ITCZ continues from 06N42W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 06N and 08N between 52W and 55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough over the north central Gulf of Mexico from 28N90W to 23N89W has no significant convection associated with it. In the upper levels, an upper level trough extends SSW from Louisiana to the Bay of Campeche. Upper level diffluence E of the low is supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect the upper-level trough to lift northeastward over the Gulf during next 48 hours. Expect isolated thunderstorms to affect the E Gulf over the next 48 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is slowly traversing the central Caribbean waters. See above. The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough reaches the NW coast of Colombia and is producing scattered scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the extreme SW Caribbean S of 10N. Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due to a weak surface pressure gradient south of T.S. Jose. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated thunderstorms are observed over Hispaniola due to low-level convergence and deep moisture on the south side of Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW Atlantic; and a tropical wave. Expect some convection to continue over the island for the next few days as Jose moves WNW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Jose and easternmost Atlc Tropical Wave. See tropical waves section for information on the remainder waves. Otherwise, a cold front extends SW over the central Atlantic from 32N39W to 24N51W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found along and up to 120 nm east of the front to the north of 31N. Expect the front to dissipate over the next 12 hours. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of ridging extending SW from a 1033 mb high centered NE of the Azores near 49N22W to 21N48W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy