000 AXNT20 KNHC 142359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 14/1800 UTC, the center of Tropical Storm Jose is around 447 nm SSW of Bermuda near 24.9N 66.6W, moving WNW at 7 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 25N-27N between 66W-68W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 22N-27N between 65W-69W. Some restrengthening is forecast for Friday evening, and Jose will likely become a hurricane again. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low pressure center near 10N24W. The wave axis extends from 16N24W to the low to 05N24W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A 700 mb low is also noted. Some development of this system is possible over the next few days. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 09N-13N between 23W-27W. There is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next two days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlc from 15N34W to 03N35W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of very deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-15N between 32W-40W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 19N54W to 11N54W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A sharp 700 mb trough is also seen. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 13N-16N between 51W-54W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 20N71W to 10N73W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of deep moisture as noted by SSMI TPW imagery. A surface trough and 700 mb trough are both seen. Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over N Colombia. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from the African coast near 15N17W to 10N24W to 11N31W to 06N40W. The ITCZ continues from 06N40W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 48W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the central Gulf of Mexico from 30N89W to 23N90W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered S of Louisiana near 28N90W. Upper level diffluence E of the low is supporting scattered moderate convection over the NE Gulf from 25N-29N between 83W-89W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Yucatan Channel. Expect the upper level low to move NE over the next 48 hours. Expect convection to persist over the E Gulf over the next 48 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters. See above. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough reaches the NW coast of Colombia and is producing scattered scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. Otherwise, the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW Atlantic support scattered showers in the NE Caribbean and Puerto Rico. Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due to a weak surface pressure gradient. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola due to inflow of moist air associated with Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW Atlantic; and a tropical wave. Expect convection to continue over the island for the next few days as Jose moves WNW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Jose and easternmost Atlc Tropical Wave. See tropical waves section for information on the remainder waves. Otherwise, the tail end of a cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N41W to 24N51W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface ridge. Expect the front to dissipate over the next 12 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa