000 AXNT20 KNHC 141805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 14/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is around 450 nm SSW of Bermuda near 24.9N 66.6W, moving W at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 22N to 26N between 65W and 68W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 21N to 27N between 62W and 69W. Lighting density data show a line of strong tstms in the NE quadrant of the storm and also in the outer rainbands over the NE Caribbean. Some restrengthening is forecast to begin on Friday, and Jose will likely become a hurricane again by the weekend. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low pressure center near 11N23w. The wave axis extends from 16N23W to the low to 05N23W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, deep-layer moisture and is underneath a diffluent environment aloft that is supporting numerous moderate convection from 09N to 12N between 22W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 07N to 15N between 20W and 30W. Some development of this system is possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less favorable. There is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next two days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low pressure center near 09N34W. The wave axis extends from 14N33W to the low to 03N33W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, deep-layer moisture and is underneath a diffluent environment aloft. However, different from the tropical wave to the east, some dry air intrusion is suggested by the IR enhanced SAL imagery and by the TPW/LPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 15N between 30W and 43W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 18N51W to 11N54W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however water vapor imagery show this wave is under dry subsident air, which is limiting the convection to scattered showers within 60 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from 19N70W to 10N72W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however water vapor imagery show this wave is under dry subsident air, which is limiting the convection to isolated showers within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from the African coast near 14N17W to 11N23W to 09N34W to 05N43W. The ITCZ continues from 05N43W to 04N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N between 44W and 58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated middle to upper level trough extends from Ohio SW into the western half of the Gulf with a base reaching to just N of the Bay of Campeche. This trough aloft support a 1013 mb low centered near 27N89W and a surface trough that extends from 28N87W to the low to 23N92W. Diffluent flow to the E of the trough along with moisture advection from the Caribbean by SSE flow support scattered heavy showers and tstms E of the low center from 24N to 29N between 84W and 90W. Strong dry air subsidence W of the low support clear skies. The low over the central Gulf is forecast to dissipate tonight. Surface ridging will then establish through Saturday along with light to moderate SSE flow. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean waters, however not significant convection is associated with it. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for details. A 1011 mb low is over Belize and the SE Yucatan Peninsula, underneath middle level diffluent and upper level divergent flow. This scenario is supporting scattered heavy showers and tstms inland and within 90 nm off the coast. The eastern extension of the monsoon trough reaches the NW coast of Colombia and support scattered showers and tstms in the SW basin S of 13N. Otherwise, the outer rainbands of Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW Atlc support scattered showers and tstms in the NE Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due to the weakened pressure gradient. These winds will pick up to fresh speeds from east to west as the tropical wave moves west. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and tstms are affecting Hispaniola due to inflow of moist air associated with Tropical Storm Jose located in the SW Atlc. A tropical wave is moving across the Island, thus enhancing this convection. Shower coverage over the island will begin to increase during the next few days as Jose continue to move WNW N of the area. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Jose and easternmost Atlc Tropical Wave. See tropical waves section for information on the remainder waves. Otherwise, a cold front curves SW from 30N43W to 26N50W to a 1016 mb low near 24N54W. Scattered convection is present along and up to 150 nm SE of the front. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a surface ridge. The front is forecast to dissipate tonight. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos