000 AXNT20 KNHC 141039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 639 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 14/0900 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is around 440 nm SSW of Bermuda near 25.1N 66.5W, moving W at 3 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. The maximum sustained winds are now 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present in the SE semicircle within 150 nm and in the NW semicircle within 60 nm. Jose is expected to move slowly and gradually turn NW through Friday night, then turn toward the north on Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave moving westward off the coast of Africa has an axis extending from 14N15W to 06N21W, moving west around 15 kt. This wave coincides with pronounced troughing in 700 mb model wind fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 14N between 18W and 25W. A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has an axis extending from 17N31W to a 1012 mb low centered near 08N33W to 03N33W, moving west at around 20 kt. This wave coincides with modest troughing in 700 mb model wind fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 13N between 30W and 39W. A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending from 18N44W to 10N53W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields associated with this wave has become weak and oriented from SW to NE due to interaction with a sharp mid to upper-level trough just to the NW of the wave. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of modest deep-layer moisture. There is no significant convection currently associated with this wave. Previous interaction with the tropical wave and upper-level trough has caused the development of a surface trough extending from 30N38W to 20N43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 24N to 27N between 34W and 38W. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending from 18N68W to 11N71W, moving west around 5 kt. This wave coincides with pronounced troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in modest deep-layer moisture. Only a few isolated thunderstorms just north of the Gulf of Venezuela are currently associated with this wave, possibly due to convergent upper-level winds in ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from Senegal on the African coast near 14N17W to 10N22W to low pres 1012 mb centered near 08N33W to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 05N43W to 08N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and surface low over the eastern Atlantic, isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 60 nm either side of a line from 04N43W to 08N52W to 10N59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging extending westward from the Atlantic over the northern Gulf is promoting a light to gentle wind regime over the basin. Weak surface roughing over the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to lose identity as the morning progresses. The only significant deep convection present is associated with an upper- level disturbance translating northeastward across the Gulf. Convection associated with this upper-level feature is taking place over the NE Gulf from 23N to 27N between 85W and 90W. Otherwise, upper-level convergence in place over the Gulf to the east of a pronounced mid to upper- level trough over Texas and Mexico is inhibiting deep convection. This relatively tranquil pattern is expected to remain in place for the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave crosses the central Caribbean from northern Colombia to the Dominican Republic. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for details. A weak ridge passes south of Jose from just north of the Lesser Antilles over Hispaniola to the northwestern Bahamas. Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due to the weakened pressure gradient. These winds will pick up to fresh speeds from east to west as the tropical wave moves west. ...HISPANIOLA... A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose remains in place. Upper-level cloudiness from the outflow of Jose continues to plume overhead. Isolated showers will affect the higher terrain during daytime heating. Shower coverage over the island will begin to increase during the next few days as Jose moves farther away. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, and the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical wave over the basin. A cold front curves SW from 32N45W to 26N52W to 27N56W, then continues as a weakening stationary front to 29N62W. Scattered convection is present along and up to 150 nm SE of the front east of 54W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of ridging extending SW from a 1030 mb Azores high centered near 44N21W to weak high pressure centered east of Jose near 22N54W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy