000 AXNT20 KNHC 140527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 14/0300 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is around 430 nm south of Bermuda near 25.2N 66.0W, moving W at 3 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. The maximum sustained winds are now 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 20N-27N between 60W- 69W. Jose is expected to move slowly NW through Friday afternoon, then turn toward the north on Friday night. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has an axis extending from 18N28W to a 1010 mb low near 09N29W to 02N29W, moving west at around 15-20 kt. This wave coincides with modest troughing in 700 mb model wind fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 07N between 26W and 30W and from 06N to 12N between 31W and 35W. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean has an axis extending from 20N72W to 10N72W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides with modest troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in modest deep-layer moisture. There is no significant convection currently associated with this wave, possibly due to convergent upper-level winds in ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from Senegal on the African coast near 15N17W to 11N21W to low pres 1010 mb centered near 09N29W to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues from 06N38W to 07N46W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave and surface low over the eastern Atlantic, isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm either side of a line from 05N35W to 04N45W to 10N57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging extending westward from the Atlantic over the northern Gulf is promoting a light to gentle wind regime over the basin. No significant deep convection is present with upper-level convergence in place over the Gulf to the east of a pronounced mid to upper-level trough over Texas and Mexico. Very weak low pressure just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula is dissipating. This relatively tranquil pattern is expected to remain in place for the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave crosses the central Caribbean from northern Colombia to the Dominican Republic. Please refer to the tropical waves section above for details. A weak ridge extends from just north of the Lesser Antilles over Hispaniola to the northwestern Bahamas. Winds across much of the Caribbean remain in the gentle to moderate range due to the weakened pressure gradient. These winds will pick up to a fresh speeds to the east of the tropical wave as it moves west. ...HISPANIOLA... A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose remains in place. Upper-level cloudiness from the outflow of Jose continues to plume overhead. Shower coverage should be isolated along the higher terrain during daytime heating through the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, and the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical wave over the basin. A surface trough has an axis extending from from 22N41W to 29N39W. Moderate convection is found from 22N to 27N between 35W and 38W. This trough should gradually lift northward but only maintain limited deep convection. Finally, a stationary front crosses the discussion area from 32N46W to 28N53W to 31N60W. Scattered convection is present along and up to 150 nm SE of the front east of 55W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of ridging extending SW from a 1029 mb Azores high centered near 41N22W to 23N60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy