000 AXNT20 KNHC 132323 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 723 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 13/2100 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 25.3N 65.9W, moving S at 3 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The maximum sustained winds remain 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 20N-27N between 60W-69W. Jose is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next couple of days, moving west- northwestward by late Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the east Atlantic with axis extending from 18N28W to a 1010 mb low near 08N29W to 03N29W, moving west at around 15-20 kt. This wave is well-defined in the 700 mb model winds and the Senegal rawindsonde report. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-13N between 24W-32W. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean with axis extending from 20N68W to 08N69W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides with modest troughing in initial model 700 mb wind field and in the San Juan/Santo Domingo rawindsonde observations. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture, especially east of the wave axis. Despite this, there is no significant convection associated with this wave, possibly due to convergent upper-level winds in ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from the African coast near 14N17W to 10N19W to 06N35W. The ITCZ continues from 06N35W to 09N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave/ surface low along 29W, scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N-14N between 17W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Light to gentle winds are present across the Gulf with no significant deep convection being present. Surface troughing is developing across the southeast waters from the Yucatan Channel to the coast of Tampa with isolated showers. This pattern is expected to remain in place for the next couple of days. It is worth noting that southern and southeastern Mexico will see the combined impact of Pacific Tropical Storm Max and the monsoon trough lifting northward. These will produce copious amounts of rain and have the potential for flash floods and mudslides. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave extends across the eastern Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. A weak ridge extends from just north of the Lesser Antilles to the northwestern Bahamas. Winds across much of the Caribbean are in the gentle to moderate range. These winds will pick up to a fresh breeze on the east side of the tropical wave as it moves west. ...HISPANIOLA... A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose remains in place. Upper-level cloudiness from the outflow of Jose remains in place. Shower coverage should be isolated along the higher terrain during daytime heating through the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, and the Tropical Waves section for information on the tropical wave in the basin. Two surface troughs are present: one from 14N48W to 11N52W and a second one from 20N39W to 21N41W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm of these troughs. The first trough should fade in the next day or so. The second trough should gradually move northward with convection, though no tropical development is expected. Finally, a frontal system extends across the central Atlantic analyzed as a cold front from 31N45W to 28N55W then as a stationary front from that point to 31N60W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the cold front. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of ridging from a 1027 mb Azores high centered near 40N22W extending southwestward to 23N55W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA