000 AXNT20 KNHC 131751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 150 PM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 13/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 25.5N 65.6W, moving SE at 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. The maximum sustained winds remain 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 180 nm in the southeastern semicircle and 90 nm in the northwestern semicircle due to the northwesterly vertical shear affecting the hurricane. Jose is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next couple of days, moving west- northwestward by late Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from about 03N to 13N near 19W, moving west around 20 kt. This wave is well-defined in the 700 mb model winds and the Senegal rawindsonde report. Visible satellite imagery and peripheral ASCAT scatterometer winds suggest that a broad surface low in association with the wave may be forming along the monsoon trough. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a large area of deep- layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the wave axis between 08N and 12N. A tropical wave over the Caribbean has an axis extending from about 10N to 19N near 67W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides with modest troughing in initial model 700 mb wind field and in the San Juan/Santo Domingo rawindsonde. The wave also has a significant surface signature with SE surface winds reported in the Lesser Antilles this morning and E to ENE winds reported by NDBC buoy 42059 and the WINDSAT satellite winds. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture, especially east of the wave axis. Despite this, there is no significant convection associated with this wave, possibly due to convergent upper-level winds in ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W from Guinea on the African Coast near 10N14W to 07N35W. The ITCZ continues from 07N35W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 13N between 34W and 13W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak stationary front is centered over the northernmost Gulf of Mexico this morning. Light to gentle winds are present across the Gulf with no significant deep convection being present. This tranquil weather pattern is expected to remain in place for the next couple of days. It is worth noting that southern and southeastern Mexico will see the combined impact of Pacific Tropical Depression 16-E and the monsoon trough lifting northward. These will produce copious amounts of rain and have the potential for flash floods and mudslides. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak ridge of high pressure extends from just north of the Lesser Antilles the northwestern Bahamas. A tropical wave is propagating through the central Caribbean, but without significant winds or deep convection. Winds across much of the Caribbean are in the gentle to moderate range. These winds will pick up to a fresh breeze on the east side of the tropical wave. ...HISPANIOLA... A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose remains in place. Upper-level cloudiness from the outflow of Jose remains in place. Shower coverage should be isolated along the higher terrain during daytime heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, and the tropical waves section for information on the tropical wave in the basin. Additionally, two surface troughs are present: one from 13N48W to 16N45W and a second one from 20N42W to 27N34W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the first trough axis and within 120 nm of the second trough axis north of 23N. The first trough should fade in the next day or so. The second trough should gradually move northward with scattered moderate convection, though no tropical development is expected. Finally, a weak cold front has entered our northern boundary from 32N45W to 30N62W. Scattered showers are present within 60 nm of the front. Aside for these areas, the remainder of the basin remains under the influence of ridging from a 1027 mb Azores high centered near 40N22W extending southwestward to 23N55W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos/Landsea