000 AXNT20 KNHC 131037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 637 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 13/0900 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 26.1N 66.0W, moving SE at 7 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. The maximum sustained winds remain 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is sheared to the south of the center from 23N to 26N between 64W and 67W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 22N to 27N between 62W and 68W. Jose is still forecast to slowly make an anticyclonic loop between the Bahamas and Bermuda during the next several days. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from 03N25W to 16N23W, moving west around 20 kt. This wave coincides with well defined troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in a large area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 20W and 33W and from 09N to 11N between 25W and 27W. A tropical wave over the E Atlantic has an axis extending from 10N49W to 19N44W, moving west at 20 to 25 kt. Troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields associated with this wave has become weak and oriented from SW to NE due to interaction with a sharp mid to upper-level trough stretching from 32N45W to 14N52W. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 13N to 15N between 46W and 49W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 16N to 21N between 39W and 42W. Interaction by the tropical wave and upper-level trough has resulted in the development of a surface trough extending from 20N42W to 26N36W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 23N to 26N between 35W and 39W. A tropical wave over the Caribbean has an axis extending from 04N70W to 19N69W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. This wave coincides with modest troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields. TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture. Despite this, there is no significant convection associated with this wave, possibly due to convergent upper-level winds in ridging to the south of Hurricane Jose. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends SW from Senegal on the African Coast near 14N16W to low pres 1011 mb centered near 09N25W to 07N37W. The ITCZ continues from 07N37W to 09N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 11N between 10W and 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A light wind regime has developed over the basin with weak ridging residing over the Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate winds and seas ranging between 2 and 4 ft generally prevail across the Gulf. This tranquil weather pattern is expected to remain in place for the next couple of days as seas continue to gradually subside. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak ridge of high pressure extends from just N of Puerto Rico to South Florida. A tropical wave is propagating through the eastern Caribbean. Winds across much of the Caribbean are in the light to gentle range, with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Winds over the eastern Caribbean are a bit stronger, in the gentle to moderate range, due to a tighter gradient between the tropical wave and the ridge. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over this portion of the basin. Locally enhanced trades are expected to follow the tropical wave as it propagates across the Caribbean waters. ...HISPANIOLA... A dry weather regime continues over the island as strong ridging to the south of jose remains in place. Shower coverage should be limited to the higher terrain during daytime heating, with isolated thunderstorms expected. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Jose, and the tropical waves section for information on the tropical waves over the basin. Aside for these areas, the remainder of the basin remains under the influence of ridging extending SW from a 1026 mb Azores high centered near 39N22W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy