000 AXNT20 KNHC 112354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 754 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 12/0000 UTC, the center of T.S. Irma is well inland near xx.xN xx.xW or about NM east of Tallahassee, Florida, moving north- northwest at 15 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Irma is forecast to move to S Georgia in 24 hours. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. At 11/2100 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 26.4N 69.2W, or about 315 NM north-northeast of Grand Turk Island, moving north at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 NM in the SE semicircle only. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted elsewhere within 90 NM in the NW and 150 NM in the SE semicircles. Jose is forecast to make an anti-cyclonic loop northeast of the Bahamas over the next several days. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis extending from 18N33W to 05N34W, moving west at 15-20 kt. This wave coincides with a 700 mb trough, as noted in model guidance. SSMI TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm W of the wave axis from 15N to 18N. A tropical wave is currently crossing the Windward and Leeward Islands into the far eastern Caribbean. The wave axis extends from 19N61W to 07N62W, moving west at 15 kt. This wave coincides with moderate troughing at 700 mb wind fields. SSMI TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep-layer moisture. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N-14N between 55W-61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 18N16W to 13N30W to low pressure 1011 mb near 13N44W to 12N52W. The ITCZ continues from 12N52W to 11N60W. Strong upper level diffluence SE of an upper trough is generating a large area of convection outside the tropical waves from 10N to 17N between 37W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The center of T.S. Irma is inland over southern Georgia moving NNW further into Georgia. Fresh to strong winds are noted over the northeast Gulf waters with seas still in the 8 to 11 FT range. Broken to overcast low clouds accompanied the strong winds on the backside of Irma with embedded showers noted. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail over the western half of the basin while a surface ridge builds across the area. A surface trough over the southern Gulf of Mexico extended from 22N90W to 23N96W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave moving through the Leeward and Windward islands is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the southern Windward Islands at this time. This activity will continue moving west with the wave affecting the southern Caribbean waters. An area of scattered showers prevails across the far northwestern waters south of Cuba north of 18N west of 80W. Scatterometer data depicts light sub-normal trades across most of the area except west of 80W, where moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the north coast of the Dominican Republic with high level outflow cirrus clouds from Hurricane Jose sweeping across the island. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information concerning T.S. Irma and Hurricane Jose. Also, see the section above for information about the tropical waves across the basin. Aside for these areas, the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb high near 26N51W and a larger 1025 mb high over the Azores. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cobb