000 AXNT20 KNHC 110554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 154 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 11/0300 UTC, the center of Hurricane Irma is near 27.5N 81.9W or about 35 NM ENE of Sarasota, Florida, moving N at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Irma is a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained wind speeds of 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Irma is forecast to move to S Georgia in 24 hours. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 24N-33N between 76W-85W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. At 11/0300 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 23.7N 68.1W, or about 212 NM NE of Grand Turk Island, moving NW at 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 962 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. The eye of the storm is no longer discernible. Jose is forecast to turn more toward the N over the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 21N-25N between 67W-70W. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low near 12N30W. The wave axis extends from 18N29W to the low center to 06N31W, moving W at 20 kt. This wave coincides with a 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N-16N between 29W-34W. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development. There is a medium chance for a tropical depression to form during the next few days. A tropical wave extends from 19N57W to 08N57W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave coincides with moderate troughing in 700 mb wind fields. SSMI TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 19N16W to 12N30W to 10N44W to 10N47W. The ITCZ continues from 10N47W to 11N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N-13N between 42W-55W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... The center of Hurricane Irma is inland over central Florida moving to S Georgia. An extensive band of convection is over the N semicircle moving N. 34 kt winds extend 360 NE, 200 SE, 150 SW, 240 NW, from the center (nm). Refer to the special features section for further details. High pressure is building into the western half of the Gulf. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A few lingering bands from Hurricane Irma are sweeping across portions of central Cuba and weakening with time as the center of the storm pushes further N across Florida. Very moist southerly flow associated with Irma is over the central and western Caribbean underneath upper level diffluent flow, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms across the western half of the basin. Scattered showers are embedded within the outer rainbands of Hurricane Jose along the coast of Hispaniola. Fresh SSW winds associated with Irma are over the NW Caribbean. A tropical wave is forecast to move over E Caribbean waters Monday and Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... The outer rainbands of Hurricane Jose along the N coast of Hispaniola are moving N and away from the island. Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to build over the island during afternoon and evening maximum heating Monday. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the special features section above for information concerning Hurricanes Irma and Jose. Seas over the extreme western north Atlantic waters are building to 12 to 17 feet as tropical storm force winds in the NE semicircle of Irma overspread the area. Scattered to numerous squalls accompanied the increasing winds and seas mainly N of 25N and within 180-240 Nm of the Florida east coast. Outside of the influence of the tropical cyclones, a 1028 mb Azores high is centered near 39N29W with ridging extending S to near 19N E of 55W. Two tropical waves are also over the tropical Atlantic. See above. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near 30N45W. Scattered showers are within 300 nm of the center. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa