000 AXNT20 KNHC 091759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 09/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Irma is near 22.8N 79.8W or about 150 NM SE of Key West, Florida, moving W, or 280 degrees, at 8 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is up to 941 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the NW and 90 nm in the SE semicircles of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 240 NM in the NE quadrant, 150 NM in the S semicircle of the center. WSR-88D data from both Key West and Miami clearly show the eye of hurricane Irma moving along the N coast of Cuba. Squalls have spread over the Florida Keys and south Florida. Homestead, Florida reported a wind gust of 54 kt shortly before 1500 UTC. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. At 09/1500 UTC, the center of Hurricane Jose is near 18.3N 61.3W, or about 105 NM E of the northern Leeward Islands, moving NW, or 305 degrees, at 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center of Jose. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 150 NM in the NE and 90 NM in the SE semicircles of the center. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. At 09/1200 UTC, the center of the remnant low of Katia is near 20.0N 97.9W, moving WSW, or 240 degrees, at 2 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Clusters of moderate to strong convection is within 90-120 NM of the center over the high terrain of SE Mexico. The last advisory has been issued on T.D. Katia. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa with axis from 17N17W to 1012 mb low pressure near 10N19W to 04N19W moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection as noted within 240 NM W of the wave axis and low pressure near 10N19W. Scatterometer data indicated a closed low along the wave axis with convection fairly well organized. A tropical wave extends from 15N49W to 05N51W, moving west at 15 to 20 knots. This wave coincides with moderate troughing in 700 mb wind fields. SSMI TPW satellite imagery indicates the wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 47W and 54W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 12N17W to 09N20W to 11N27W. The ITCZ continues from 11N27W to 11N40W to 09N55W to 12N59W. ASide from convection associated with the two tropical waves, there is no significant convection associated with the monsoon trough/ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Multilayered cloudiness is increasing over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in advance of hurricane Irma. Surface observations indicate NE winds are increasing over much of the Gulf E of 90W. WSR-88D data from Key West shows a band of squalls extending from near Marco Island Florida to near the N coast of Cuba spreading NW. Patches of low clouds with pockets of shower activity were noted elsewhere over the Gulf. Most of the convection associated with former T.D. Katia moved inland over Mexico as the system has dissipated along the Sierra Madre Mountains. The potential for additional heavy rainfall exists for portions of the Sierra Madre as the remnants of Katia push further inland tonight and Sunday. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Irma is along the north coast of Cuba moving W. Bands of strong convection are over sweeping over portions of central Cuba producing very heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Convective bands extend southward in the Caribbean to 19N. A large area of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms were noted over the central Caribbean Sea between 68W and 75W streaming northward over portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Hurricane Jose is approaching the northern Leeward Islands with outer feeder bands sweeping over Antigua, Barbuda and Anguilla. Outside of the influence of Irma, a light to moderate sub-normal trade wind regime prevails over most of the Caribbean as the pressure gradient to the south of Irma and Jose remains weak. Seas outside the influence of Hurricanes Irma and Jose are generally in the 4-6 ft range over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are streaming northward from the Caribbean across Haiti and the western Dominican Republic. This low level mosture feed will gradually move west of the island on Sunday as Hurricane Irma moves further away from the area. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the special features section above for information concerning Hurricanes Irma and Jose. Besides Hurricanes Irma and T.S.Jose, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail. Seas over the extreme western north Atlantic waters are in the 9-13 foot range as a result of swell generated by Hurricane Irma. These seas will increase on Sunday as Hurricane Irma moves along the Florida west coast and the large wind field affects the western Atlantic. Otherwise, a 1031 mb Azores high is centered near 43N32W with ridging extending to the W Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades are evident in satellite derived wind data between the monsoon trough/ITCZ and 25N between 20W and 50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cobb