000 AXNT20 KNHC 080003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Irma is centered near 21.1N 71.8W at 08/0000 UTC, or about 45 nm to the WSW of Grand Turk Island and about 80 nm to the E of Great Inagua Island in the Bahamas. Irma is moving WNW at 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 919 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 150 kt with gusts to 185 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place in the NE semicircle within 270 nm of the center and in the SW semicircle within 210 nm of the center. The eye of Irma will move WNW away from the north coast of Haiti tonight and then move between the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next day or two. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Jose is centered near 15.2N 51.4W at 08/0000 UTC, or about 470 NM E of the Lesser Antilles. Jose is moving WNW at 16 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is located in the eastern semicircle within 90 nm of the center and in the western semicircle within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere in the eastern semicircle within 150 nm of the center and in the western semicircle within 90 nm of the center. Jose is now a major hurricane, but some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 to 36 hours. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Katia is centered near 21.6N 94.7W at 08/0000 UTC, or about 185 nm E of Tampico, Mexico, or about 165 nm NNE of Veracruz, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is found within 30 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring elsewhere within 120 nm of the center. Katia remains nearly stationary but is forecast to begin moving southwestward and approach the coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC and, the Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the central Atlc has an axis extending from 14N33W to weak 1010 mb low pressure centered near 08N34W to 03N34W, moving W at 20 kt. The wave coincides with well defined troughing in initial model 700 mb wind fields and is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Cloudiness, isolated showers and thunderstorms are present from 06N to 14N between 33W and 38W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania on the the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 18N18W to 13N21W to 1010 mb low pressure centered near 08N34W to 08N40W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 07N44W to 09N48W. Aside from the convection associated with the Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 08N between 16W and 25W and within 60 nm either side of a line from 05N46W to 11N49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Katia remains nearly stationary over the SW Gulf of Mexico as a Category one hurricane. Katya is expected to begin moving WSW tonight or early Friday and make landfall north of Veracruz Mexico on Friday night or Saturday morning. Katia could gain some additional strength before landfall. Please refer to the special features section for more information. The circulation of Hurricane Irma will be large enough to cause winds over the Gulf of Mexico E of 90W to increase Saturday through Tuesday. Please consult the special features section for more information in Irma. Otherwise, a broad middle to upper level trough over the eastern United States supports a frontal boundary that crosses the Gulf from north of Tampa, Florida near 28N83W to 27N90W to 25N93W. Scattered to isolated moderate convection associated with the front is present 24N to 27N between 89W and 94W. The front is expected to remain nearly stationary through Sunday. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Major Hurricane Irma is passing north of Haiti. As Irma continues WNW along the north coast of Cuba during the next couple of days, fresh to strong winds will affect the waters south of Cuba and N of 18N. For further details on Irma, see the special features section. The E portion of the EPAC monsoon trough crosses the SW Caribbean along 10N, but virtually all of the associated convection is confined over and S of Panama and Costa Rica. ...HISPANIOLA... Hurricane Irma is currently passing to the north of Haiti. As Irma continues moving WNW toward the Bahamas, weather conditions over Hispaniola will gradually improve during the next couple of days as winds subside and shower coverage decreases. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The major weather players in the basin are major Hurricanes Irma and Jose. Please consult the special features section for further details. In a minor scale, a broad middle to upper level trough over the E CONUS supports a frontal boundary that extends SW from 32N76W to near St Augustine Florida near 29N81W. The boundary is expected to become nearly stationary and remain in place for the next couple of days. Only a few isolated showers and thunderstorms were present S of the front and N of 29N between 75W and 78W. Otherwise, the Azores high dominates the remainder of the Atlc Ocean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy