000 AXNT20 KNHC 061203 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Irma, at 06/1200 UTC is near 18.1N 63.3W, or about 13 nm W of St. Martin, and about 13 nm WSW of Anguilla. Irma is moving WNW, 285 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 kt with gusts to 195 kt. Irma is the strongest hurricane to be in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Irma has a well defined eye about 25 NM in diameter. Convective precipitation: numerous strong within 120 nm of the center in the NE and SW quadrants, within 120 nm to 180 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Please read the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC and, the Forecast/ Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Jose, at 06/0900 UTC is near 12.5N 42.8W, or about 1180 NM ESE of Hurricane Irma. Jose is moving west, 275 degrees 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are now 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Convective precipitation: Scattered to Numerous strong is within 90 nm to 120 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 90 nm of the center in the S semicircle. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 10N to 19N between 39W and 45W. The center of Tropical Storm Katia, at 06/0900 UTC, is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 22.1N 96.3W, or about 90 nm E of Tampico, Mexico, moving ESE, 110 degrees, 2 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 24N southward into the northern parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico between 93W and 98W at the coast of Mexico. The upper level shear is forecast to be less and less, which combined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, should result in gradual strengthening. Please read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa. It is along 20N21W, 13N24W, and 04N25W, moving W 10 knots. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 11N to 13N between 24W and 28W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 22N78W in Cuba to 15N79W, and 08N80W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 135 nm to the south of Cuba between 77W and 82W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through 20N16W at the coast of Mauritania, to 13N20W, 10N22W, and to 08N30W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 03N to 15N from 60W eastward, and in parts of E and NE coastal Venezuela . ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Katia is in the SW corner of the area. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, and multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation are elsewhere in the area, away from Tropical Storm Katia. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Category 5 Hurricane Irma already has entered the area of the NE Caribbean Sea islands, in the Leeward Islands. The long-range forecast moves Irma just outside the islands of the Caribbean Sea, from the NE corner, in a northwestward direction, just missing Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Irma is forecast to pass through the Atlantic Ocean, but very close to the Greater Antilles. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N77W to the south of Jamaica. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from SE Cuba southward between Colombia and 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... Hurricane Irma is forecast to be nearing the eastern coastal waters of Hispaniola, on the Atlantic Ocean side, about sunrise on Thursday. Its forecast track carries it northwestward during the entire day of Thursday, still in the Atlantic Ocean waters, toward the SE Bahamas just after midnight on Friday. Irma is forecast to move toward SE Cuba by Friday night into early Saturday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about Hurricane Irma, and Tropical Storm Jose. An upper level trough passes through 33N34W to 27N376W, and to 21N40W. A surface trough is along 32N32W 29N34W 25N35W. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 60W. A surface trough is along 33N46W 30N48W 27N49W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N northward between 62W and 67W. rainshowers are possible from 25N northward between 60W and 66W. Upper level SW wind flow is moving from the Florida Panhandle northeastward beyond Georgia, into the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front/stationary front is in the eastern U.S.A., paralleling the East coast of the U.S.A. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N northward between 76W and the U.S.A. coast. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT