000 AXNT20 KNHC 292359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 28.7N 93.9W at 30/0000 UTC or about 74 nm S of Port Arthur, Texas moving E at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present within 210 NM in the N quadrant of the center over the E Texas and extreme western Louisiana coasts. WSR- 88D from Houston, TX indicates heavy rainfall from the Sabine River to High Island, TX extending over the Houston metro area. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring well E of the center between SE Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, from 27N- 32N between 86W-90W, due to a feeder band. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 36.0N 74.3W at 29/2100 UTC or about 74 nm NE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NE at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is well displaced from the low level center and within 240 NM in the E quadrant of the low over the Gulf Stream off the NC coast. The system will continue to move away from the North Carolina coast over the western Atlantic Ocean tonight. The system is forecast to strengthen at sea and become a hurricane-force extra tropical low over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean by Wednesday evening. The system is not expected to become a tropical cyclone. See last Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the last full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecast issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic associated with a 1008 mb low that is located near 15N26W. The wave axis extends from 23N24W to the low to 10N25W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-19N between 23W-32W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated 20-25 KT winds within 180 nm in the N semicircle of the low. The wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture as seen on TPW satellite imagery. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form from this system over the eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. Heavy rain is possible over portions of the northwestern Cabo Verde Islands for a few more hours. There is now a high chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending from 24N43W to 17N43W to 11N41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough in initial model wind fields. TPW satellite imagery shows an area of modest deep layer moisture located on the east side of the wave. Satellite imagery also shows the presence of a large area of Saharan dust to the N and W of the wave. Convection associated with the wave is limited at this time. A tropical wave over the E Caribbean extends from 22N68W to 10N70W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with modest 700 mb troughing in initial model wind fields and curvature in the most recent scatterometer pass. SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is embedded in an area of modest deep layer moisture. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 15N-20N between 67W-73W to include most of Hispaniola. A tropical wave over the W Caribbean extends from 21N82W to 09N82W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing in initial model wind fields. TPW satellite imagery shows this wave is embedded in an area of modest deep layer moisture. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is W of the wave axis over E Honduras, E Nicaragua, and N Costa Rica. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 16N25W to 10N47W. The ITCZ continues from 10N47W to 09N61W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 09N-13N between 54W-61W, to include portions of the Windward Islands. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Harvey has a fairly broad low-level exposed center located over the Gulf of Mexico near 29N94W. Associated deep convection is displaced NE of the center over the upper Texas and extreme SW Louisiana coasts. Feeder bands east of the center continue to produce isolated moderate convection over the north central Gulf, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the western Florida panhandle. Catastrophic inland flooding is forecast to continue over Texas and Louisiana over the next few days. Of interest, a preliminary report from a Texas rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical cyclone rainfall record. A surface trough traverses N Florida and the NE Gulf from 30N80W to 28N83W. Divergent upper level winds are located east of the trough axis over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida N of 26N. Harvey is expected to drift slowly NE along the middle and upper coasts of Texas through tonight, then move inland over SW Louisiana on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean waters. See the tropical waves section for additional details. The eastern terminus of the E Pacific monsoon trough passes over Costa Rica, and Panama and producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the Caribbean S of 13N and W of 76W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87W enhancing showers over the Yucatan and Central America. ...HISPANIOLA... Widely scattered moderate convection is over the island due to a tropical wave. Expect similar conditions through Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The last advisory has been issued for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten. This system is now extra tropical and is forecast to rapidly deepen over the next 24 hours. It merits continued watching. For additional information please see Special Features section above. Elsewhere, a broad 1027 mb high centered over the Azores near 39N28W ridges SW to another weaker 1020 mb high near 28N59W then to the central Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail south of the ridge west of 30W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa