000 AXNT20 KNHC 291156 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Harvey is centered off the Texas coast near 28.2N 94.6W at 29/1200 UTC or about 80 nm ESE of Port O'Connor Texas and about 125 nm SSW of Port Arthur Texas moving ENE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is present N of the center over Texas and Louisiana from 30N to 31N between 92W and 96W. A surface trough curves south from the center to 22N93W. Scattered moderate and strong convection is occurring E of the trough within 30 nm either side of a line from 23N92.5W to 26N91W to 30N91W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 34.1N 77.7W at 29/1200 UTC or about 15 nm SE of Wilmington North Carolina and about 65 nm WSW of Cape lookout North Carolina moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen from 31N to 33N between 75W and 77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere S of 34N and N of a line from 33N73W to 29N77W. The system will move along the North Carolina coast today to east of Cape Hatteras this evening, then NE into the open North Atlantic well to the S of New England on Wed. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic associated with a 1008 mb low that is located near 14N22W. The wave axis extends from 20N23W to the low to 06N21W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 14N to 17N between 23W and 26W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 23W and 30W. The wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture as seen on TPW satellite imagery. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form from this system over the eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. There is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over the central Atlantic has an axis extending from 24N39W to 12N37W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough in initial model wind fields. TPW satellite imagery shows an area of modest deep layer moisture located on the east side of the wave. Satellite imagery also shows the presence of a large area of Saharan dust to the N and W of the wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 11N between 38W and 43W. A tropical wave over the E Caribbean extends from 24N67W to 09N68W moving W at 15 to 20 kt. The wave coincides with modest 700 mb troughing in initial model wind fields. SSMI TPW imagery shows this wave is embedded in an area of modest deep layer moisture. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave over the west central Caribbean extends from 20N78W to 10N80W, moving W around 15 kt. The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing in initial model wind fields. TPW satellite imagery shows this wave is embedded in an area of modest deep layer moisture. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Senegal in west Africa near 18N16W to low pres 1008 mb near 14N22W to 12N36W to 09N48W. The ITCZ continues from 09N48W to 08N57W. Other than the convection associated with the tropical waves, there is no significant convection associated with either the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Harvey has a low-level exposed center located over the Gulf of Mexico near 28N95W. Associated deep convection is displaced NE of the center over SE Texas and SW Louisiana. Feeder bands on the east side of a surface trough extending S from Harvey continue to produce isolated moderate convection over the north central Gulf, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Inland flooding is forecast to continue over Texas and Louisiana for the next few days. Elsewhere, a surface trough traverses N Florida and the NE Gulf from 32N80W to 27N87W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is seen from 31N to 33N between 75W and 77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from S of 34N and N of a line from 33N73W to 29N77W. An upper level trough is located over central Texas. Divergent upper level winds are located east of the trough axis over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida N of 26N. Harvey is expected to drift slowly NE along the middle and upper coasts of Texas through Tuesday night, then move inland over SW Louisiana on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean waters. See the tropical waves section for additional details. The eastern terminus of the E Pacific monsoon trough passes over Costa Rica, and Panama and producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the Caribbean S of 13N and W of 76W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the Gulf of Honduras near 17N86W enhancing showers over the Yucatan and Central America. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively dry weather prevails over the island. Expect more showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours as an approaching tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough approaching from the N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered N of the area near 34.1N77.7W. This system continues to impact the northwestern portion of the discussion area N of 29N with convection, 20 to 25 kt winds and seas to 9 ft. See above. A broad 1028 mb high centered just N of the Azores near 40N28W ridges SW to western Cuba. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy