000 AXNT20 KNHC 290012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 812 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 28.2N 95.5W at 29/0000 UTC or about 48 nm E of Port O'Connor Texas moving ESE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of the center from 29N-31N between 95W-97W. Isolated moderate convection is over a large area E of the center associated with feederbands from 27N-34N between 86W-93W. The center of Harvey is now over the Gulf of Mexico. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 32.4N 79.7W at 29/0000 UTC or about 30 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina and about 139 nm SW of Wilmington North Carolina. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 31N-33N between 77W-80W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 28N-34N between 75W-81W. The system will move over or near the coast of South Carolina tonight and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic associated with a 1008 mb low that is located near 12N22W. The wave axis extends from 18N22W to the low to 06N21W, moving W at 5 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the low center. The wave is in a very moist area as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. This system has become better organized since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in two or three days over the eastern Atlantic. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday. There is a medium chance for this system to become a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 25N35W to 10N37W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery shows moderate amounts of moisture. Satellite imagery also shows the presence of Saharan dust N and W of the wave environment. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. A tropical over the E Caribbean wave extends from 25N65W to 10N66W moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery shows moderate amounts of moisture. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean extends from 19N76W to 09N78W, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with a slight 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery shows moderate amounts of moisture. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 12N21W to 10N38W to 11N40W to 08N49W. Besides the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 08N-10N between 32W-37W. In addition, a surface trough extends from 15N50W to 08N50W with isolated moderate convection within 180 nm either side of the trough. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Harvey has an exposed center over the Gulf of Mexico with convection N of the center over SE Texas. Feederbands continue to produce isolated moderate convection over the north central Gulf, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Inland flooding is forecast to continue for the next few days. Elsewhere, a surface trough traverses N Florida and the NE Gulf from 30N80W to 28N85W with isolated moderate convection within 120 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over central Texas with diffluence over the the E Gulf and Florida. Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper coasts of Texas through Tuesday night, then move inland over the northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean waters. See above. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends over Costa Rica, and Panama producing scattered moderate convection. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the Cayman Islands near 19N81W enhancing showers over Jamaica and E Cuba. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers presently are over Haiti. Expect more showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours with the approach of the next tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten centered N of the area continues to impact the northwestern portion of the discussion area with convection, and 35 kt winds. Seas are up to 13 ft. See above. A 1028 mb high is centered W of the Azores near 40N30W producing surface ridging to the central Atlantic near 30N60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa