000 AXNT20 KNHC 280556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 155 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 28.7N 96.4W at 28/0600 UTC or about 15 nm N of Port O'Connor Texas moving ESE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 27N-33N between 90W-98W. Widely scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 25N-35N between 88W-98W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC for more details. Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten is centered near 30.3N 81.0W at 28/0600 UTC or about 160 nm SSW of Charleston South Carolina and about 280 nm SW of Wilmington North Carolina remaining stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 28N-32N between 76W-80W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 27N-35N between 72W-81W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 12N32W to 25N31W moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 28W-37W. Infrared satellite imagery shows the presence of Saharan dust surrounding the wave environment N of the monsoon trough axis. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. A tropical wave extends from 13N58W to 24N61W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700 mb between 55W- 62W and continues to generate widely scattered moderate convection from 17N-24N between 55W-63W. A tropical wave extends from 11N74W to 23N70W moving W at 10-15 kt. Subtle 700 mb troughing aloft is noted in the vicinity of the wave between 69W-75W and continues to generate isolated moderate convection from 18N-21N between 67W-73W...mainly across Hispaniola. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 14N27W to 12N36W to 12N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 10N-17N between 12W-23W. Widely scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 06N-10N between 16W-37W...and from 10N-14N between 38W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... With the surface circulation of Harvey inland across southern Texas...scattered showers and tstms continue across the NW and north-central Gulf waters generally N of 25N W of 88W. Harvey remains on the northwestern periphery of an upper level ridge anchored over the central Gulf near 26N88W that extends influence over the entire Gulf basin from the NE waters to the SW waters and the Florida peninsula. To the east of Harvey...upper level divergence associated with the ridging supports scattered showers and tstms occurring across the eastern Gulf S of 29N E of 87W in association with a surface trough extending from Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten across the central Florida peninsula to the Tampa Bay region and into the eastern waters near 26N87W. The remainder of the Gulf is under mostly gentle to moderate southerly winds with the exception of gentle to moderate cyclonic winds across the eastern Gulf in closer proximity to the surface troughing across Florida. Harvey is expected to remain in the vicinity of the Texas coast through mid-week with a ridge axis extending from the Florida peninsula to the SW Gulf as Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten moves NE in the SW North Atlc waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Much of the NW Caribbean and portions of Central America N of Nicaragua are under the influence of NE flow aloft with upper level convective debris cloudiness moving over the NW Caribbean this evening. To the east...an upper level low is centered near 17N80W generating isolated showers and tstms in the adjacent coastal waters of eastern Cuba. As the upper level low continues to retrograde...upper level ridging will continue to build in over the eastern Caribbean through Monday. A tropical wave currently across the central Caribbean along 73W will likely benefit with a favorable divergent environment aloft supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring between 71W-75W. Another tropical wave along 60W will begin to bring isolated showers and tstms to the Lesser Antilles through Monday. Lastly...moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Tuesday night. Thereafter...trades across central portions of the basin will increase as high pressure anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc waters. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave across the island is bringing scattered showers and isolated tstms through the overnight hours into Monday. As this wave passes another tropical wave currently E-NE of the Leeward Islands will approach Tuesday and bring another round of precipitation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten continues to impact the northwestern portion of the discussion area this evening. Scattered showers and tstms associated with the area of low pressure links up with a stationary front analyzed N of the area offshore of the Carolinas. This convection reaches from the low NE to a 1012 mb gale force low centered near 36N66W. Farther east... an upper level low is centered near 30N49W and supports a surface trough analyzed from 28N56W to 33N52W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 29N-33N between 46W-51W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered W of the Azores near 40N32W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN