000 AXNT20 KNHC 272337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 736 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 29.0N 97.0W at 27/2100 UTC or about 22 nm northwest of Victoria Texas, moving southeast at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is north of 26N between 88W-93W. See the latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. As of 27/2100 UTC, the 1007 mb low centered over the west Atlantic near 31.2N80W has been called Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten. Maximum sustained wind speeds with this low are near 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. The low is currently stationary and is embedded on a frontal boundary that extends west to the coast of Louisiana near 30N89W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to affect the western Atlantic, Florida Peninsula, and eastern Gulf of Mexico between 73W-86W. The low is likely to become a tropical depression or storm during the next day or so. This system has a high chance for development during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia through mid- week. See the latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT25 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis from 24N30W to 12N31W, moving west at around 10 kt. The wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery shows moderate amounts of moisture in this wave's environment. Satellite imagery also shows the presence of Saharan dust north of the wave. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. A tropical wave extends its axis from 23N60W to 13N56W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700 mb and continues to generate scattered moderate convection from 15N-22N between 52W-60W. This wave will enter the eastern Caribbean during the next 24 hours enhancing convection over the Leeward Islands. A tropical wave extends its axis across the eastern-central Caribbean from 22N68W to 10N72W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave continues to provide isolated showers across coastal waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from 18N-21N between 66W-72W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 12N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-15N and east of 27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The surface circulation of T.S. Harvey is inland over southeast Texas. A band of convection is moving over the north-central Gulf waters mainly north of 26N between 88W-93W. Significant inland flooding is forecast to continue for the next several days as Harvey stays nearly stationary and weakening slowly. Refer to the section above for more details about Harvey. To the east, the Potential T.C. Ten is centered over the west Atlantic. A surface trough extends from the low, across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf waters from 30N81W to 27N85W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across the Gulf waters from 23N-27N and east of 88W. See the Special Features section above for more details. Scatterometer data depicts variable fresh to strong winds over the far east and far west Gulf, while gentle to moderate winds prevail over the central Gulf. Little change is expected during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean while another wave will be entering the eastern Caribbean in 24 hours. See the section above for details. An upper-level low is centered south of Cuba enhancing convection over the island and adjacent waters north of 18N and west of 77W. To the south, the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific's monsoon trough is over Costa Rica and Panama producing scattered moderate convection south of 10N. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. ...HISPANIOLA... A tropical wave is currently moving across the eastern portion of the island enhancing convection. Expect similar activity to continue through the next 24 hours as the waves moves west. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Potential T.C. Ten is centered over the western Atlantic. Please refer to the section above for details. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted north 27N between 72W-80W. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 39N34W. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 33N51W to 28N55W with isolated showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA