000 AXNT20 KNHC 271804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 29.0N 97.4W at 27/1500 UTC or about 30 nm WNW of Victoria Texas and about 61 nm ESE of San Antonio Texas, moving SSE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 28N-31N between 92W-94W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 25N-33N between 90W-98W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. As of 27/1500 UTC, a 1011 mb low is centered off the coast of Georgia near 31N80W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to Daytona Florida near 29.5N81W to Tampa Florida near 28N83W to the E Gulf of Mexico near 27N85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the W Atlantic from 28N-32N between 74W- 80W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over central Florida and the E Gulf of Mexico from 23N-28N between 81W-84W. The surface low is also embedded on a stationary front that extends W to New Orleans Louisiana near 30N89W. The low is likely to become a tropical depression or storm during the next day or so before it merges with a cold front. Regardless of development, the low is expected to cause increasing winds and rough surf along the coasts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and Virginia through mid-week. A tropical storm watch may be required for a portion of the coast of North and South Carolina this afternoon. Heavy rain is also expected to continue over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next 24 hours. There is a high chance for this system to form into a tropical cyclone within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 25N27W to 12N30W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with an amplified 700 mb trough. SSMI TPW imagery shows moderate amounts of moisture. Satellite imagery also shows the presence of Saharan dust N and W of the wave environment. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. A tropical wave extends from 22N55W to 12N54W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700 mb and continues to generate widely scattered moderate convection from 15N-21N between 52W-59W. A tropical wave extends from N of Puerto Rico near 21N66W to NW Venezuela near 09N70W, moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave continues to provide isolated moderate convection across coastal waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola from 17N-21N between 66W-69W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to an embedded 1009 mb low near 08N15W to 14N25W to 11N40W to 10N49W. Scattered moderate convection is round the low from 05N-12N between 11W-22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-18N between 19W-23W, and from 08N-13N between 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The surface circulation of T.S.Harvey is inland over SE Texas. A thick band of convection is training over the NW Gulf of Mexico, SE Texas, and Louisiana, N of 24N between 90W-95W. Inland flooding is forecast to continue for the next several days. Elsewhere, a surface trough traverses central Florida with convection. See the special features section above. Harvey remains on the northwestern periphery of an upper level ridge anchored over the central Gulf near 26N90W that extends influence over the entire Gulf basin and the Florida peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean. See above. The eastern extent of the E Pacific monsoon trough extends over Costa Rica, and Panama producing scattered moderate convection. Elsewhere, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over W Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over Jamaica near 18N78W enhancing showers over Jamaica and E Cuba. Expect over the next 24 hours for a tropical wave presently E of the Lesser Antilles to affect the Leeward Islands. Also expect the Caribbean tropical wave to continue to move W with showers and convection. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly fair weather is currently over Hispaniola. A tropical wave is about to traverse the island. Expect showers and isolated thunderstorms over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is now over the W Atlantic N of 27N W of 74W. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 33N51W to 29N55W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. A 1028 mb high is centered W of the Azores near 39N34W producing surface ridging to the central Atlantic near 30N46W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa