000 AXNT20 KNHC 270602 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 202 AM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Corrected for designation of Harvey Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Harvey is centered near 29.3N 97.4W at 27/0600 UTC or about 40 nm NW of Victoria Texas and about 60 nm ESE of San Antonio Texas remaining stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 29N-32N between 94W-96W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 28N-33N between 90W-99W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC for more details. A 1011 mb low is centered across the northern Florida peninsula near 29N82W. Surface troughing extends N-NE to the offshore waters of Jacksonville and SW across Tampa Bay to 26N84W in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 25N-28N between 81W-84W with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 24N-29N between 80W-87W. The surface low remains under the influence of a relative divergent flow aloft on the eastern periphery of an upper level ridge anchored over the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W. The low is forecast to track NE through Sunday into the SW North Atlc waters and move along the coast to the Mid-Atlc region by Tuesday night. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 15N28W to 25N25W moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave coincides with amplified 700 mb troughing between 23W-33W. Infrared satellite imagery shows the presence of Saharan dust surrounding the wave environment N of the monsoon trough axis. No significant deep convection is associated with the wave at this time. A tropical wave extends from 11N51W to 22N52W moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave coincides with broad troughing at 700 mb between 48W- 56W and continues to generate scattered moderate convection from 16N- 21N between 51W-58W. A tropical wave extends from 10N66W to 20N65W moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave has moved across the central Atlc waters and Lesser Antilles the past few days as a surface trough and continues to provide scattered showers across the eastern Caribbean Sea and adjacent Atlc coastal waters N of Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin Islands this evening. A tropical wave extends from 13N97W to 20N96W moving W at 15 kt. Global model guidance suggests subtle 700 mb troughing and a maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity S of 19N between 93W-100W moving over portions of southern Mexico and the adjacent East Pacific waters. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 15N-19N between 91W-100W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 17N16W to 12N40W to 12N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-15N between 10W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 39W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... With the surface circulation of Harvey inland across southern Texas...scattered showers and tstms continue across the NW Gulf waters generally N of 27N W of 91W. Harvey remains on the northwestern periphery of an upper level ridge anchored over the central Gulf near 26N90W that extends influence over the Lower Mississippi River valley...the entire Gulf basin...and the Florida peninsula. To the east of Harvey...upper level divergence associated with the ridging supports the Special Features low centered across the Florida peninsula near 29N82W. The remainder of the Gulf is under mostly moderate southerly winds with the exception of gentle to moderate cyclonic winds across the eastern Gulf in closer proximity to the low across Florida. Harvey is expected to remain in the vicinity of the Texas coast through mid- week with a ridge axis extending from the Florida peninsula to the SW Gulf as the Florida low moves NE into the SW North Atlc waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Much of the NW Caribbean and portions of Central America are under the influence of NE flow aloft with convective debris upper level cloudiness moving over the NW Caribbean. To the east...an upper level low is centered over the Windward Passage region generating widely scattered showers and tstms from 17N-20N between 72W- 79W...including portions of western Hispaniola and Jamaica. As the upper level low continues to retrograde...upper level ridging will build in over the eastern portion of the basin through Monday. A tropical wave currently across the eastern Caribbean along 66W will likely benefit with a favorable divergent environment aloft supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring within 210 nm either side of the wave axis. Lastly... moderate to fresh trades prevail and this overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... An upper level low is centered over the Windward Passage region this evening supporting widely scattered showers and tstms across western portions of the island. As the low moves westward through Sunday night...a tropical wave is expected to move across the island and adjacent coastal waters bringing scattered showers and isolated tstms through early Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level ridging and an overall divergent upper level pattern prevails over the SW North Atlc this evening generating scattered showers and tstms remaining W of a line from 32N65W near Bermuda to 29N76W to the coast of western Cuba near 23N79W. Water vapor imagery also indicates long wave upper level troughing offshore of the eastern CONUS with the base of this trough remaining generally N of 33N. The trough supports a stationary front extending from 34N64W to coastal Georgia near 32N81W to the Florida panhandle. An upper level low is centered near 30N48W and supports a surface trough analyzed from 26N57W to 31N53W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 28N-33N between 46W-53W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered W-NW of the Azores near 40N35W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN