000 AXNT20 KNHC 251158 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 AM EDT Fri Aug 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Harvey is centered near 26.3N 95.8W at 25/1200 UTC or about 120 nm SE of Corpus Christi Texas and about 125 nm SSE of Port O'Connor Texas moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 24N-30N between 91W-98W. See latest Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/ WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 13N26W to 19N26W to 23N24W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with amplified 700 mb troughing between 16W-28W. Infrared satellite imagery shows the presence of Saharan dust surrounding the wave environment N of the monsoon trough axis generally along 13N. No significant deep convection is occurring at this time. A tropical wave extends from 11N42W to 20N41W moving W at 5-10 kt. A weak 1010 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N and is providing focus for isolated moderate convection from 17N- 19N between 39W-44W. A tropical wave extends from 08N88W to 16N88W moving W at 10-15 kt. Global model guidance suggests subtle 700 mb troughing between 85W-90W moving over portions of Central America and the East Pacific waters to the S. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 86W-91W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 17N21W to 13N26W to 14N32W to 10N47W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 10N47W to 09N61W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 28W-37W...and from 05N-09N between 36W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary concern for the Gulf of Mexico is Hurricane Harvey that continues to track toward the southern Texas coast. Harvey remains on the western periphery of an upper level ridge extending from over the Lower Mississippi River valley southward over the central Gulf to over the northern Yucatan peninsula. The ridge also extends influence over the SE Gulf and southern Florida peninsula this morning supporting a 1010 mb low centered W of Fort Myers Florida near 27N83W. A surface trough extends N from the low to the Florida Big Bend region near 30N84W and another surface trough extends W from the low to 26N87W. The low along with the boundaries in place and upper level divergence over the region are generating scattered showers and tstms from 23N-27N between 80W-85W...including portions of the southern Florida peninsula. As Harvey impacts the NW Gulf waters and coastal Texas through the upcoming weekend...the troughing and weaker low pressure across the eastern Gulf waters are expected to maintain unsettled conditions across the Florida peninsula as the low moves NE and into the SW North Atlc waters through Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Much of the NW Caribbean and portions of Central America are under the influence of NW flow aloft and an overall divergent pattern supporting scattered showers and tstms occurring N of 13N between 79W-86W. Otherwise...farther east...much of the central and eastern Caribbean are under dry air aloft and mostly fair conditions at the surface this morning. Moderate to fresh trades prevail and this overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist through the weekend into Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies prevail this morning across the island with these overall conditions expected to persist through the weekend. Isolated afternoon showers and tstms are possible across western Hispaniola with maximum daytime heating and instability...along with local sea breeze effects. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level ridging and an overall divergent upper level pattern prevails over the SW North Atlc this morning generating scattered showers and tstms remaining W of 74W. Water vapor imagery also indicates an upper level trough offshore of the SE CONUS with the base of this trough in the vicinity of 31N77W. The trough supports a 1013 mb low centered over southern South Carolina and a stationary front extending from 34N77W to the low near 33N81W and then to the Florida panhandle. Farther east across the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc...ridging prevails anchored by a 1026 mb high centered W-NW of the Azores near 41N42W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN