000 AXNT20 KNHC 242357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 757 PM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Harvey is near 24.7N 93.9W at 24/2100 UTC, or about 265 nm SE of Corpus Christi, Texas or about 255 nm SSE of Port Oconnor, Texas. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Numerous strong convection is from 23N to 28N between 90W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection and tstms are elsewhere from 21N to 29N between 90W and 97W. Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to stall near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Life-threatening and devastating flooding expected near the coast due to heavy rainfall and storm surge. Please see PUBLIC ADVISORIES issued under the WMO/AWIPS header WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4 and FORECAST/ADVISORIES under the WMO/AWIPS header WTNT24 KNHC/MIATCMAT4 for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlc with axis extending from 19N19W to 06N24W, moving W at 5 kt. Enhanced satellite imagery show the presence of Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment. The CIRA LPW imagery show dry air in the wave environment as well, which is hindering convection at the time. A tropical wave is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 21N40W to 08N40W, moving W at 5 kt within the last 24 hours. Extensive Saharan dry air and dust intrusion into the wave environment, currently hinder convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 11N33W to 10N46W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from there to 10N51W, resuming W of a surface trough near 09N54W to 08N60W. Scattered showers and tstms are from 07N to 10N between 40W and 48W. Isolated showers are elsewhere from 04N to 12N between 24W and 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main concern in the basin is hurricane Harvey, which is generating much of the weather basin-wide. Please, see the Special Features section for details. Otherwise, a 1010 mb low developed in the SE Gulf underneath a broad region of upper level diffluence, which is supporting heavy showers and isolated tstms over the western central and southern Florida Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are within 120 nm of the low center. This low is forecast to move NE across central Florida by Friday afternoon. Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Instability in the NW Caribbean being generated in part by middle to upper level diffluent flow supports scattered heavy showers and tstms across Cuba and adjacent waters to 18N. Isolated showers and tstms are in the Gulf of Honduras associated with a tropical wave moving into EPAC waters. A middle level inverted trough centered in the Mona Passage support scattered showers across central and southern Haiti and SW Dominican Republic. Isolated showers are across western Puerto Rico as well. Otherwise, the EPAC monsoon trough support isolated showers S of 14N W of 75W. Dry air subsidence support fair weather elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... A middle level inverted trough centered in the Mona Passage support scattered showers across central and southern Haiti and SW Dominican Republic. This shower activity is forecast to continue through early Friday, however an upper level low will move over the Island supporting the continuation of showers through the night hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of diffluent flow aloft is over the region generating instability and supporting the continuation of scattered showers and tstms across the northern Bahamas and the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, surface ridging and fair weather dominates elsewhere N of 20N. For tropical waves information, see section above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos