000 AXNT20 KNHC 241753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Wed Aug 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Harvey at 24/1800 UTC is near 24.4N 93.6W, or about 290 nm to the SE of Corpus Christi in Texas, and about 285 nm to the SSE of Port Oconnor in Texas. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Harvey is moving NNW or 335 degrees 9 knots. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about Tropical Depression Harvey are being issued under the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ ADVISORIES about Tropical Depression Harvey are being issued under the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 150 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. scattered moderate to strong within 75 nm of the center in the SW quadrant. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere within 300 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 240 nm of the center in the S semicircle. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/25W from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 17N between 17W and 24W, and from 08N to 13N between 27W and 31W. This precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 23N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered strong within a 30 nm radius of 16N between 40W and 41W. isolated moderate from 10N to 18N between 34W and 42W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 21N southward to Panama, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 18N southward between 77W and 87W, even reaching inland areas of Central America from Panama to Honduras. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of the southern part of the Western Sahara near 22N17W, to 16N32W, 15N40W, and 09N46W. The ITCZ continues from 09N46W to 07N54W. Convective precipitation: elsewhere, away from the tropical waves: isolated moderate from 04N to 08N between 27W and 35W. scattered moderate to isolated strong from 08N to 11N between 51W and 63W, including in parts of Venezuela. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Harvey is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section of this bulletin. A surface trough is along 84W/85W from 23N to 29N in the eastern part of the area. This feature shows up well in visible satellite imagery. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, that is moving away from the HURRICANE HARVEY circulation, covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Convective precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 20N just to the south of Cuba to 29N in Florida between 73W in the Bahamas and 84W in the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KVAF. MVFR: KGUL and KEHC. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: light rain in Brownsville. LOUISIANA: MVFR in Galliano. FLORIDA: light rain in Ft. Myers. Rain and thunder near Naples. Rain and thunder from Marathon Key to Key West. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea that is to the NW of the line that runs from the Hispaniola beyond NE Nicaragua. An upper level inverted trough, that is in the easternmost part of the area, is spreading cyclonic wind flow between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean and 67W, from 20N southward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N78W. Upper level NW wind flow covers the area that is from 15N southward between 70W and Central America. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 23/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.96 in Merida in Mexico, 0.46 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.20 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, and 0.06 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area, in large- scale anticyclonic wind flow. Comparatively drier air in subsidence also spans the area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist of, first anticyclonic wind flow for the first half of the day, followed by N wind flow for the rest of the day. A cyclonic circulation center will be moving westward, from the eastern part of the Caribbean Sea during day one. The cyclonic circulation center is forecast to move NNW and overtake and cover Hispaniola completely during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow at the start of day one, will become E wind flow, and eventually cyclonic with an inverted trough at the end. Day two will consist of an inverted trough and cyclonic wind flow. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will start with anticyclonic wind flow in the eastern part, and an inverted trough/cyclonic wind flow in the western half of Hispaniola. Expect cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough for the rest of day one. Day two consists of NE wind flow at the start of the day, on the southern side of an Atlantic Ocean ridge, mixed with a comparatively-fast moving inverted trough and some cyclonic wind flow. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is inland, passing through South Carolina, into Georgia, SE Mississippi, the southern parts of Louisiana, toward the Texas Big Bend. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is along and to the north of 32N between 69W and the U.S.A. coast. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 32N64W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from Hispaniola northward between 55W and 73W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 21N northward between 56W and 70W. An upper level trough passes through 32N30W to 25N36W, to a weak cyclonic circulation center that is near 15N44W, to 14N56W, and the eastern Caribbean Sea inverted trough. no significant deep convective precipitation is associated with this trough. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 34N42W, through 29N56W, to 23N72W, to Cuba near 23N82W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt