000 AXNT20 KNHC 241031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Harvey on 24/0900 UTC is near 23.2N 92.8W, or about 321 nm SE of Port Mansfield Texas, moving N at 9 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Numerous strong convection is from 21N-25N between 90W-94W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 20N-26N between 89W-95W. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey is expected to become a hurricane by Friday. Please see PUBLIC ADVISORIES issued under the WMO/AWIPS header WTNT34 KNHC/ MIATCPAT4 and FORECAST/ADVISORIES under the WMO/AWIPS header WTNT24 KNHC/MIATCMAT4 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa. The wave axis extends from 17N18W to 12N21W to 05N22W, moving W at 10 kt. The CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant moisture at low levels. The wave is also associated with a 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from 12N-16N between 17W-20W. A tropical wave extends from 23N39W to a 1010 mb low located near 17N39W to 10N39W, moving W at 15 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a large area of cloudiness in association with this wave, but convection is limited. This wave remains in a very moist area based on TPW imagery and has a well pronounced 700 mb trough. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and extends from 21N81W through Panama to the E Pacific near 05N81W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough, and is well depicted in the SSMI TPW moisture imagery. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N-15N between 77W- 84W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 12N20W to 15N30W to 17N39W to 12N44W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 12N44W to 07N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 26W-32W, and from 08N-10N between 35W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Harvey moving towards the Texas coast. Watches and warnings have been issued. Please, see the Special Features section for details. As of 24/0900 UTC, a surface trough is over the E Gulf of Mexico from 29N83W to 24N85W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the trough axis from 24N-26N between 81W-83W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over NE Mexico near 24N99W, and an upper level high is over the central Gulf. Expect heavy rain and localized flooding over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next few days due to the surface trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 11N-15N between 76W-84W. Scattered showers are also over Costa Rica and Panama due to the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough. Expect the W Caribbean and Central America to have more convection over the next 24 hours mostly due to the tropical wave. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly fair weather is presently over the island. Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will continue to combine with available moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please see above. Scattered moderate convection is over the northern and central Bahamas from 22N-26N between 75W-80W. A 1023 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 40N46W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is also centered near 32N63W. Expect a surface low to form off the coast of Jacksonville Florida Friday evening with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa