000 AXNT20 KNHC 240605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Harvey on 24/0600 UTC is near 22.6N 92.6W, or about 356 nm SE of Port Mansfield Texas. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured tropical storm force winds, pressure, and location of Harvey on 24/0400 UTC. Numerous strong convection is from 22N-25N between 90W-93W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 20N-26N between 89W-92W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey could become a hurricane by Friday evening. Please see PUBLIC ADVISORIES issued under the WMO/AWIPS header WTNT34 KNHC/ MIATCPAT4 and FORECAST/ADVISORIES under the WMO/AWIPS header WTNT24 KNHC/MIATCMAT4 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the W coast of Africa associated with a broad cyclonic circulation. The wave axis extends from 17N20W to 08N21W, moving W at 10 kt. The CIRA LPW imagery shows abundant moisture at low levels associated with this wave. The wave is also associated with a 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from 12N-15N between 16W- 19W. A tropical wave extends from 22N38W to a 1012 mb low within the monsoon trough located near 17N38W to 11N38W, moving W at 15 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a large area of cloudiness in association with this wave, but convection is limited. This wave remains in a very moist area based on TPW imagery and has a well pronounced 700 mb trough. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and extends from 20N80W through Panama to the E Pacific near 05N80W moving W at 15 kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough, and is well depicted in the SSMI TPW moisture imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-14N between 78W-82W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 12N22W to 15N30W to 12N40W to 12N44W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 12N44W to 11N50W to 07N58W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 08N-13N between 25W-29W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 29W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main concern in the basin is Tropical Storm Harvey moving towards the Texas coast. Please, see the Special Features section for details. As of 24/0300 UTC, a surface trough extends from N Florida near 30N83W to the Straits of Florida near 24N83W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the E Gulf E of 84W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over NE Mexico near 24N99W, and an upper level high is over the central Gulf. Expect heavy rain and flooding over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next few days due to the surface trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. Please, see Tropical Waves section for details. Scattered showers remain along Cuba and adjacent waters being supported by a broad area of diffluent flow aloft. Isolated moderate convection remains over E Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Scattered showers are also over Costa Rica and Panama due to the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough. Expect the W Caribbean and Central America to have more convection over the next 24 hours mostly due to the tropical wave. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly fair weather is presently over the island. Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will continue to combine with available moisture to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. Please see above. Isolated moderate convection is over the northern and central Bahamas. A 1022 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 34N48W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is also centered near 32N63W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa