000 AXNT20 KNHC 231751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of regenerated Tropical Depression Harvey at 23/1800 UTC is near 21.5N 92.5W, or about 465 nm to the SSE of Port Oconnor in Texas, or about 405 nm to the SE of Port Mansfield in Texas. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Harvey is stationary. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES about Tropical Depression Harvey are being issued under the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES about Tropical Depression Harvey are being issued under the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and under the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from the coast of Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to 27N between 89W and 94W. isolated moderate in the coastal plains of Belize from 17N to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21N35W 10N39W, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 13N between 35W and 41W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W from 19N southward to the Colombia/Panama border. The wave is cutting through the eastern sections of Jamaica, moving westward 10 knots. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica to 11N between 79W and 82W. scattered moderate to isolated strong is in broad cyclonic wind flow, and from 11N to 15N in eastern Honduras between 80W and 84W, and elsewhere from 12N southward between 75W and Nicaragua. isolated moderate from 15N to 17N between 73W and 78W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 11N15W, to 10N17W, 17N25W, 17N36W, and 06N50W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 09N to 13N between 22W and 24W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere from 06N to 15N between 14W and 41W. isolated moderate from 07N to 10N between 41W and 51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Harvey is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast moves Harvey to the Texas coast, as a Tropical Storm, between 48 hours and 72 hours. Please read the special bulletins, the forecast/advisory MIATCMAT4 or the public advisory MIATCPAT4, for more details. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from the coast of Mexico in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico to 27N between 89W and 94W. isolated moderate in the coastal plains of Belize from 17N to the NE corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 30N80W, across Lake Okeechobee in south Florida, to 24N83W in the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the trough near 25N82W. The forecast for the trough and low pressure center is to maintain their positions near Florida, surrounded by rainshowers during the next few days. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 22N near Cuba to 27N in south Florida between 75W and the Bahamas and 81W in south Florida. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: heavy rain in Pearland. rain and thunder at the Ellington Field in the Houston metropolitan area. rain and thunder have ended for the moment in Galveston. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area. rain and thunder near Dothan. FLORIDA: rain and drizzle in Mary Esther. towering cumulus clouds at the NAS in Key West. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 17N southward between 82W in the SW corner of the area, and 64W along the coast of Venezuela. Upper level NE wind flow covers the area that is to the west of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua. This NE wind flow is part of larger-scale anticyclonic wind flow that also is present in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 23/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.83 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.67 in Merida in Mexico, 0.18 in Guadeloupe, 0.07 in Nassau in the Bahamas, and and 0.04 in Trinidad. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence also spans the area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist of N-to-NE wind flow across Hispaniola, that is moving around a Bahamas anticyclonic circulation center. Day two will consist of N wind flow, moving around an eastern Caribbean Sea cyclonic circulation center. Day two will consist of anticyclonic wind flow at the start of day one. An inverted trough eventually develops early on day one, and that trough continues across Hispaniola for the rest of day one, and during all of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE wind flow will move across the area, with at least one inverted trough mixed into the larger-scale wind flow, for each day of the 48-hour forecast period. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 30N60W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward between 52W and 74W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 22N to 24N between 55W and 57W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 23N northward between 53W and 70W. An upper level trough extends from a 29N32W cyclonic circulation center, to 20N38W, to a 16N47W cyclonic circulation center. An upper level inverted trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from 10N to 18N between 54W and 60W. A surface trough is along 25N55W 18N57W 11N60W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers from 10N to 18N between 55W and 58W. A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 34N48W, through 32N56W, to 29N68W, to the NW Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt