000 AXNT20 KNHC 111026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 626 AM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 10N37W to 19N38W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 34W-42W. Isolated moderate convection is from 06N-09N between 33W-39W. A tropical wave extends from 07N72W to 15N70W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 67W-75W. Scattered moderate and widely scattered strong convection is from 03N-11N between 72W-79W. A tropical wave extends from 10N93W to 17N92W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave remains within the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge anchored over the Gulf of Mexico to the north. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 12N-19N between 90W-96W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 13N17W to 10N23W to 13N31W to 07N44W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N44W to 05N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...widely scattered moderate convection is from 06N-14N between 16W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered over the Rio Grande River valley near 29N102W and is providing much of the Gulf basin with N-NE upper level flow this morning. Otherwise...a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 28N87W continues to provide much of the basin with relatively clear skies and fair conditions within gentle to moderate E-SE winds. The ridge is forecast to hold nearly stationary across the NE and north-central waters through the weekend as a surface trough weakens and becomes diffuse across the Florida peninsula. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring this morning across the far eastern Gulf and interior portions of Florida generally N of 24N E of 85W in association with weak low pressure and troughing across the eastern half of the peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered over the Gulf of Honduras and extends troughing NE over the NW Caribbean that continues to generate isolated showers and tstms across portions of Central America and the NW Caribbean waters generally N of 17N between 72W-80W. The upper level low is forecast to move west and weaken over Central America today. Farther east...a tropical wave is along 71W and continues providing isolated shower activity to the south-central waters and ABC islands this morning. The wave will move west and bring an increased probability of convective precipitation to northern Colombia and the SW Caribbean through Saturday. Elsewhere...moderate to fresh trades prevail with a few isolated showers occurring across Trinidad and Tobago and the extreme southern Windward Islands S of 13N between 59W-63W. ...HISPANIOLA... A few isolated showers and tstms linger across SW portions of the island and adjacent coastal waters this morning. Other isolated showers continue to feed onshore across the eastern coast on moderate to occasional fresh NE winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-level weakness between ridging anchored over the northern Gulf of Mexico and a ridge in the vicinity of 29N76W is noted on water vapor imagery over the Florida peninsula supporting a 1017 mb low centered near Cape Canaveral and a surface trough analyzed from 26N82W to the low center then N to 32N81W. The surface feature along with middle to upper level divergence is generating scattered showers and tstms N of 25N W of 77W. The surface trough is forecast to remain across Florida through the weekend and become diffuse by Sunday night. Farther east...a broad middle to upper level low is centered NE of Puerto Rico near 25N62W. A 1015 mb surface low is nearly collocated with the upper level feature near 22N63W with a surface trough extending from near the Virgin Islands through the low center to 25N60W. Scattered showers and tstms are focused from 20N-24N between 60W-64W. The upper level feature supports isolated showers and tstms elsewhere from 24N- 28N between 58W-64W. Finally...another upper level low is centered near 28N41W and supports a weakening 1018 mb low centered near 29N42W. A surface trough extends SW from the low to 25N48W and NE from the low to 33N38W with isolated showers and tstms occurring 120 nm either side of the boundary. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN