000 AXNT20 KNHC 101805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The remnants of former Tropical Storm Franklin are centered near 19.7N 99.2W at 10/1500 UTC or about 20 nm (35 KM) NNW of Mexico City, moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection and isolated tstms are from 13N-24N between 96W-102W. The National Meteorological Service of Mexico registered about 12 inches of rain in Veracruz, Mexico during a period of 24 hours ending this morning at 9 AM EDT. Other cities with high rain amounts were Hidalgo with 4 inches, and Puebla with 11 inches. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low near 09N33W. The wave axis extends from 17N33W to the low to 05N33W, and is moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of mainly low to moderate vertical wind shear and is experiencing extensive Saharan dry air and dust intrusion to its environment, which is limiting convection to isolated showers from 05N to 10N between 30W and 37W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis extending from 15N54W to inland Venezuela, moving W at 20-25 kt. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear. Shallow moisture along with upper level divergence support scattered showers and tstms S of 14N between 64W and 70W. A tropical wave extends is in the W Caribbean with axis extending from 17N85W across Honduras to EPAC waters near 07N86W, moving W at 10 kt. Shallow moisture and upper level divergent flow support scattered showers and tstms S of 18N W of 80W, including Costa Rica and Nicaragua. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 11N28W to 06N42W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N42W to 06N57W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical wave...scattered moderate convection is from 07N-10N E of 33W...heavy showers are coming from the coast of Africa from 10N-13N E of 19W. Otherwise, a surface trough is to the SE of the Windward Islands from 11N55W to 07N56W supporting isolated showers within 150 nm either side of its axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Heavy showers and tstms are off the coast of NE Mexico associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Franklin. Water vapor imagery and model guidance show a middle to upper level ridge covering the Gulf and providing subsident dry air that support fair weather elsewhere. A surface ridge has started to build across the basin with gentle to moderate SE flow, except S of 24N W of 93W where latest scatterometer data show fresh winds. Otherwise, a surface trough continue to support scattered showers across southern Florida. This trough is forecast to continue moving westward and bring increased cloudiness and precipitation to the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf waters through Friday morning. The trough is expected to stall across Florida Friday night into early Saturday as surface ridging will anchor across the north-central Gulf waters and provide fair weather and tranquil conditions for the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is over the western Caribbean centered over NE Honduras. A tropical wave is underneath this low supporting scattered moderate convection and tstms S of 19N W of 80W. The eastern extension of the EPAC monsoon trough support similar shower activity in the SW Caribbean S of 14N between 76W and 80W. Another tropical wave moves over the SE basin supporting scattered showers. For further details on the waves, see section above. A surface trough is moving across W Cuba supporting isolated showers and tstms N of 19N between 81W and the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions with moderate to fresh trades prevailing. The upper level low is forecast to move west and weaken over Central America while the tropical wave moves into the East Pacific region. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail across the island. However, an area of low pressure, currently NE of the Leeward Islands will move N of the Island Friday afternoon supporting showers through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from NE Florida adjacent waters to southern Florida supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms from 23N to 30N W of 71W. Over the north-central waters, with lack of upper level support, a stationary front continues to weaken along 30N39W to 26N50W to 25N64W. Isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the frontal boundary. An elongated area of low pressure is anchored by a 1015 mb low near 19N60W, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms from 17N to 24N between 54W and 60W. This low is forecast to move NW within the next 24 hours supporing rain to the NE Caribbean and Hispaniola. For further details on tropical waves, see section above. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos