000 AXNT20 KNHC 100546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Franklin is centered near 20.0N 96.7W at 10/0600 UTC or about 70 nm SE of Tuxpan Mexico and about 60 nm NNW of Veracruz Mexico moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 18N- 21N between 91W-96W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 16N-24N between 87W-97W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 09N32W to 20N29W moving W at 10 kt. The wave coincides with relatively sharp 700 mb troughing between 26W-38W. No significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this time. A tropical wave extends from 10N60W to 25N54W moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1013 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 19N57W providing focus for scattered moderate convection from 17N-20N between 54W-58W. A tropical wave extends from 10N84W to 21N82W moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave remains embedded within middle to upper level low centered over the western Caribbean Sea near 16N82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N-16N between 75W-90W. Isolated moderate convection is from 18N-23N between 81W-84W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to 14N26W to 08N35W to 07N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N41W to 08N51W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 13W-22W...and from 07N-12N between 49W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The primary focus this evening is Hurricane Franklin as it tracks across the SW Gulf waters and nears the Mexico coast. Scattered showers and strong tstms continue to impact the SW Gulf waters generally S of 23N W of 92W. Elsewhere across the basin...an upper level ridge anchored over the Rio Grande River valley extends eastward over the northern Gulf and Florida peninsula. At the surface...mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail under relatively tranquil conditions. A few isolated showers are occurring off the coast of extreme southern Texas S of 27N W of 95W...and along the northern Gulf coast N of 28N. An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the Bahamas and western Cuba that continues to support a surface trough analyzed across the NW Bahamas. This trough is forecast to continue moving westward and bring increased cloudiness and precipitation to the Florida peninsula and eastern Gulf waters Thursday and Thursday night. The trough is expected to stall across Florida Friday night into early Saturday as surface ridging will anchor across the north-central Gulf waters and provide fair weather and tranquil conditions for the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered over the western Caribbean near 16N82W. In addition...a tropical wave is analyzed along 84W and both features continue to generate scattered showers and tstms across portions of Central America and the SW Caribbean generally S of 16N W of 75W. The close proximity of the monsoon trough extending from northern Colombia to western Panama is also providing focus for this convective activity. The upper level low is forecast to move west and weaken over Central America while the tropical wave moves into the East Pacific region. Farther east... the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of mostly clear skies and overall fair conditions with moderate to fresh trades prevailing. A few isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the SE Caribbean S of 15N E of 66W as a tropical wave currently along 58W begins to impact the Lesser Antilles. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail this evening across the island. Overall dry conditions are expected through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is centered over the Bahamas and western Cuba this evening and reflects a surface trough analyzed from 23N80W to 29N76W. The surface trough provides focus for widely scattered showers and tstms from 22N-29N between 75W-80W. The upper level trough is expected to become absorbed by an upper level low centered over the western Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc lies under the influence of a broad upper level trough over the SE CONUS. The troughing supports a stationary front extending from offshore of the Outer Banks to southern Georgia with scattered showers and isolated tstms generally remaining N of 30N W of 75W. Farther east...another upper level low is centered near 23N57W that continues to enhance convection in the vicinity of the tropical wave between 50W-60W and a dissipating stationary front analyzed along 27N/28N. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring from 23N- 28N between 49W-61W. The stationary front links E-NE to a 1019 mb low centered near 32N37W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring in the vicinity of the low N of 29N between 34W-41W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN