000 AXNT20 KNHC 081159 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 AM EDT Tue Aug 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 19.5N 89.1W at 08/1200 UTC or about 75 nm NW of Chetumal Mexico and about 85 nm ESE of Campeche Mexico moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-22N between 83W-89W. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 12N22W to 22N20W moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 14W-27W and an area of isolated moderate convection from 08N-12N between 12W- 22W. A tropical wave extends from 08N52W to 18N46W moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 15N49W providing focus for scattered moderate convection from 15N-20N between 45W-49W. A tropical wave extends from 09N70W to 19N68W moving W at 10-15 kt. While the low-level moisture convergence remains ample about the axis...a vigorous upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near 22N69W that continues to provide a favorable diffluent environment supporting scattered moderate convection from 17N-22N between 63W-68W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 15N17W to 08N29W to 09N37W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 05N-09N between 28W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak upper level inverted trough is noted over the western Gulf W of 95W and provides a weakness in upper level ridging between a ridge anchored over NW Mexico and a ridge anchored over the south-central Gulf near 24N88W. A surface ridge axis extends from the SW North Atlc across the northern Florida peninsula to the Texas Gulf coast near Corpus Christi. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring across the NW Gulf waters generally N of 27N W of 93W. Otherwise...Tropical Storm Franklin continues tracking across the Yucatan peninsula this morning and will move into the SW Gulf waters late today into early Wednesday. Mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail this morning...however fresh to strong easterly winds are expected generally S of 23N as Franklin moves W-NW. CARIBBEAN SEA... Primary concern is Tropical Storm Franklin for the Yucatan peninsula and portions of the NW Caribbean this morning as it tracks W-NW. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally N of 15N W of 83W in association with Franklin. Isolated showers and tstms are elsewhere from 19N-22N between 78W-83W. Farther east...a majority of the central Caribbean is under the influence of northerly flow aloft and fairly tranquil conditions. However a tropical wave is analyzed along 69W/70W moving into the central Caribbean generating widely scattered showers and isolated tstms from 15N-21N between 63W-70W. The convection continues to be enhanced by an upper level low centered N of Hispaniola near 22N69W. The wave is expected to move westward with increased cloudiness and precipitation expected across Hispaniola today. ...HISPANIOLA... An approaching tropical wave is expected to increase cloudiness and precipitation across the island Tuesday and Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level N-NE flow is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc within the northwestern periphery of a broad upper level low centered N of Hispaniola near 22N69W. Overall this flow supports fair conditions N of 25N W of 60W as a surface ridge axis extends along 29N/30N anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 30N62W. Within the southern periphery of the ridging...portions of a tropical wave are analyzed across the Mona Passage region. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring 16N-25N between 63W-72W. Farther east...surface ridging extends along 27N between 30W-60W...with a weak surface trough boundary extending into the discussion area from 31N36W to 26N44W and a secondary cold front analyzed from 32N41W SW to 30N50W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within 90 nm either side of the cold front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN