000 AXNT20 KNHC 071152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 17.3N 84.7W at 07/1200 UTC or about 200 nm east of Belize City, moving WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 14N-20N between 80W-85W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N-23N between 81W-87W across inland portions of Central America...western Cuba...and the Yucatan Channel. See the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 12N43W to 20N42W moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the wave axis near 14N43W providing focus for widely scattered moderate convection from 12N-17N between 40W-44W. A tropical wave extends from 11N63W to 19N60W moving W at 10-15 kt. Well removed from the wave to the west is a 700 mb trough currently over the Mona Passage and vicinity. While the low- level moisture convergence remains ample about the axis...a vigorous middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near 22N65W and continues to provide a favorable diffluent environment supporting scattered moderate convection from 16N-23N between 56W-61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 08N21W to 13N34W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 13N34W to 14N41W then from 12N43W to 06N55W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 17W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak upper level low is centered over the central Gulf near 25N91W and provides a weakness in upper level ridging between a ridge anchored over NW Mexico and a ridge anchored over the Florida Keys. Overall...mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail this morning as a surface ridge axis extends from a 1022 mb high centered in the SW North Atlc near 30N70W across the central Florida peninsula to the east-central Mexico coast near 21N97W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring in the NW Gulf N of 28N between 91W-96W...and across the Yucatan Channel region as outer bands of convection from Tropical Storm Franklin begin impacting the SE Gulf waters this morning. Gentle to moderate S-SE winds are expected today...but by tonight...the surface ridge axis is forecast to move northward as Franklin begins to impact the Yucatan peninsula and track into the SW Gulf waters on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Primary concern is Tropical Storm Franklin for the NW Caribbean this morning as it tracks WNW toward the Yucatan peninsula during the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally N of 13N W of 80W. Farther east...a majority of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of NW flow aloft and fairly tranquil conditions. However a tropical wave is analyzed along 61W/62W moving across the Lesser Antilles generating isolated showers and tstms. Stronger convection is noted NE of the Leeward Islands occurring from 17N-23N between 56W-61W and continues to be enhanced by an upper level low centered N of Puerto Rico near 22N65W. The wave is expected to move westward with increased cloudiness and precipitation expected across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola late Monday into Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair conditions prevail this morning and also lie to the east as an upper level low and associated drier air currently centered N of Puerto Rico near 22N65W drifts westward. An approaching tropical wave is expected to increase cloudiness and precipitation across the island Tuesday and Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level anticyclone is centered over the Florida Keys near 25N80W supporting a 1022 mb high centered near 30N70W. Mostly fairly conditions prevail...however a few isolated showers are possible S of 26N W of 70W embedded within moderate tradewind flow. In addition...an upper level low is centered N of Puerto Rico near 22N65W. Widely scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 20N-22N between 64W-69W. Farther east...another 1022 mb high centered in the central Atlc near 28N49W is continuing to provide fair weather for much of the discussion area N of the deep tropics. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN/RIVERA