000 AXNT20 KNHC 070553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 AM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Franklin is centered near 16.8N 83.7W at 07/0600 UTC or about 110 nm NNW of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua and Honduras border and about 280 nm ESE of Chetumal Mexico moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 15N-20N between 79W-85W. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N-15N between 82W-89W across inland portions of Central America. See latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N45W to 19N39W moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low is centered along the wave axis near 13N42W providing focus for isolated moderate convection from 12N-14N between 41W-44W. A tropical wave extends from 10N62W to 22N58W moving W at 10-15 kt. Well removed wave to the west is a 700 mb trough currently over Puerto Rico and vicinity. While the low-level moisture convergence remains ample about the axis...a vigorous middle to upper level low is noted on water vapor imagery centered near 21N65W and continues to provide a favorable diffluent environment supporting scattered moderate convection from 16N-22N between 56W-61W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 09N20W to 13N35W to 12N41W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N46W to 07N53W to 08N59W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves...a 1012 mb low is centered along the monsoon trough axis near 09N20W providing focus for scattered moderate convection from 04N-09N between 17W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak upper level low is centered over the central Gulf near 25N91W and provides a weakness in upper level ridging between a ridge anchored over NW Mexico and a ridge anchored over the central Bahamas. Overall...mostly clear skies and fair conditions prevail tonight as a surface ridge axis extends from a 1022 mb high centered in the SW North Atlc near 29N70W across the central Florida peninsula to the NE Mexico coast near 25N98W. Late evening convection continues to dissipate across the southern Florida peninsula and the coastal NW Gulf waters with gentle to moderate S-SE winds expected through Monday. By Monday night...the surface ridge axis is forecast to move northward as Tropical Storm Franklin begins to impact the Yucatan peninsula and track into the SW Gulf waters on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Primary concern is Tropical Storm Franklin for the western Caribbean this evening as it tracks WNW toward the Yucatan peninsula during the next 24 to 36 hours. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally N of 11N W of 79W. Farther east...a majority of the central and eastern Caribbean is under the influence of NW flow aloft and fairly tranquil conditions this evening. However a tropical wave is analyzed along 60W/61W moving across the Lesser Antilles generating isolated showers and possible isolated tstms. Strong convection is noted NE of the Leeward Islands occurring from 16N-22N between 56W-61W and continues to be enhanced by an upper level low centered N of Puerto Rico near 21N65W. The wave is expected to move westward with increased cloudiness and precipitation expected across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Monday and Tuesday. Conditions will improve thereafter. ...HISPANIOLA... A few lingering isolated showers are occurring this evening across the island and are expected to continue gradually dissipating. Fair conditions lie to the east as an upper level low and associated drier air currently centered N of Puerto Rico near 21N65W drift westward and will impact the region through Monday night. However...an approaching tropical wave is expected to increase cloudiness and precipitation across the island Tuesday and Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level anticyclone is centered over the SW North Atlc near 26N76W supporting a 1022 mb high centered near 29N70W. Mostly fairly conditions prevail...however a few isolated showers are possible S of 27N W of 70W embedded within moderate tradewind flow. Farther east...another 1022 mb high centered in the central Atlc near 29N48W is continuing to provide fair weather for much of the discussion area N of the deep tropics. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN