000 AXNT20 KNHC 061721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong tropical wave is located in the west central Caribbean with axis extending from central Cuba near 22N79W to an embedded 1010 mb low near 14N80W to central Panama near 08N80W, moving WNW 10 to 15 kt. Buoy 42057 is reporting E to NE winds 25 kt. Strong convection is located within a 60 to 90 nm radius of the low center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is located up to 180 nm east of the wave axis and 90 nm west of the wave axis. The wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is located east of the Lesser Antilles with the axis extending from 20N55W to 09N58W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of moderate vertical wind shear and is easily identifiable from the latest visible satellite imagery. The wave has a 700 mb trough W of the current position in the far eastern Caribbean. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm either side of the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave is located from 19N36W to 10N40W and is moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low is located W of the wave near 11N42W. The wave axis is well depicted at 700 mb and in two days will be located along 50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is located from 10N-17N between 35W-42W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N14W to 08N25W to 13N38W to 08N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N47W to 12N57W to 10N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and off the coast of W Africa from 06N-10N between 12W- 19W. Similar convection is from 07N-10N between 24W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge aloft covers the western half of the Gulf of Mexico and light variable winds aloft cover most of the eastern half of the Gulf. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are located N of 27N east of 89W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A special feature tropical wave with embedded low is moving across the west central Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are approaching the Windward islands in advance of the Tropical Wave. Cyclonic flow aloft covers the eastern third of the Caribbean in association with a cyclonic circulation north of Puerto Rico. ...HISPANIOLA... A middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is forecast to move west to the north of the island over the next two days. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon and evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A well-defined middle/upper level cyclonic circulation is located near 22.5N63W...about 10 degrees in diameter...and is moving west about 15 kt. Another cyclonic circulation aloft is centered near 28N28W and is forecast to move north. A surface ridge extends through 32N30W to a 1022 mb High near 28N48W to a 1022 mb High near 29N70W to 28N75W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CAB