000 AXNT20 KNHC 060528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending from Jamaica near 18N78W to E Panama near 09N78W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of mostly low to moderate vertical wind shear, and is underneath upper level divergent flow. Fresh to near gale force winds was noted in satellite wind data associated with this system. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are within 180 nm either side of the axis. The wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending from 18N35W to 08N36W moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low is W of the wave near 11N40W. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear is to the north of the low center. The wave and low are in a moist environment. Dry Saharan air is noted N of 18N. The wave axis is well depicted at 700 mb. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 07N-16N between 32W-42W. A tropical wave extends is in the central Atlc with axis extending from 19N54W to 10N56W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is in a region of mainly moderate to strong vertical wind shear. The wave is in a moist environment as seen on SSMI TPW imagery. The wave has a 700 mb trough W of the current position. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-18N between 54W-59W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to 09N25W to 12N36W to 08N44W to 10N50W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N-11N between 22W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico with axis along 29N. 10-15 kt SE surface winds are over most of the Gulf. Further S, a surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N89W to Guatemala near 15N92W. Scattered moderate convection is over the N Yucatan Peninsula from 18N-21N between 89W-92W. In the upper levels, a broad upper level trough is over the N Gulf N of 27N with upper level moisture and cloudiness. Expect over the next 24 hours for airmass showers and thunderstorms to reform over the N Gulf during the afternoon and evening hours Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A special feature tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. This is main weather producer in the basin and has the potential for further development as it moves WNW. See above. Elsewhere, numerous strong convection is inland over W Honduras and El Salvador. In addition, the extension of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over Costa Rica. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 14N77W. A tropical depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday or Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... The tropical wave is W of the island, however residual scattered showers remain. More scattered showers are expected Sun afternoon and evening during maximum heating. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical low and two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic. See above. Scattered showers linger along the N Florida coast N of 29N W of 79W. Otherwise, the remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of surface highs anchored near 29N70W, and 29N51W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near 23N61W with upper level diffluence S and W of the center producing scattered showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa