000 AXNT20 KNHC 031002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 602 AM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Atlantic, extending its axis from 18N23W to 06N23W. This position was based on 700 mb streamlines analysis and model diagnostics. SSMI TPW imagery shows the wave in an area of abundant moisture. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the wave's axis and vicinity from 06N-12N and east of 30W. An central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N39W to 06N41W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows the wave is on the leading edge of a moist area. Despite this, the Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust to the north of the wave's axis. At this time, no convection is related to this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 20N65W to 07N65W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows abundant moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model depicts a large trough with this wave. Scattered moderate convection prevails in this wave's environment affecting the east and central Caribbean mainly east of 72W. Fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds were noted with this wave earlier. This conditions will continue as it moves across the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is over Central America and the EPAC, extending its axis from 19N89W to 04N87W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of moderate moisture around this wave. Isolated moderate convection is over El Salvador, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula. This wave will continue moving west enhancing convection. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 13N21W to 11N46W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and extends to 10N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along he ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 29N95W to 29N89W while another one is from 30N87W to 30N83W. Scattered showers are observed along these troughs affecting the northern Gulf waters mainly north of 28N. A diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection across the central portion of the basin from 24N-27N between 87W-92W. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored over the central Atlantic. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the basin, with locally fresh southwesterly winds over the northeast Gulf north of 28N and east of 85W. A similar scenario is expected during the next 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the easter Caribbean. See the section above for details. In addition, isolated showers are noted over the central Caribbean between 76W-84W mostly supported by diffluence aloft. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with highest speeds near the tropical wave along 64W. Expect for tropical waves to be the dominate weather features during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over the southern portions of the island due to the proximity of a tropical wave with axis currently along 66W. Expect more activity to prevail during the next 24 hours as the wave continues moving west. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic. See the section above for details. A broad surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near 31N48W. Expect during the next 24 hours for convection to develop again over the west Atlantic and near the tropical waves. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA