000 AXNT20 KNHC 020535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 AM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Emily is centered near 30.9N 78W or about 204 nm northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida moving north-northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N-36N between 74W-77W. Emily will continue to move away from the Florida peninsula tonight while losing its tropical characteristics when it interacts with a frontal system. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N31W to 06N33W, moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW shows the wave is on the leading edge of a moist area. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust west of the wave's axis inhibiting deep convection. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also indicates broad troughing with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 19N54W to 05N54W, moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust north of this wave, mainly north of 18N. Isolated moderate convection is observed within 240 nm of the wave's axis, S of 15N. A west Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N80W to 07N80W, moving west at 20-25 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of moderate moisture surrounding this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also depicts a trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust to the north of the wave. Isolated moderate convection is within 300 nm of the wave axis, mainly south of 15N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of African coast near 15N17W to 15N24W to 11N34W to 10N53W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near 10N56W to 08N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Africa from 08N-17N and east of 19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is over the north-central Gulf from 28N84W, to a 1011 mb low near 27N87W, to 27N94W. Scattered showers are south of these features mainly east of 90W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle cyclonic flow across the basin, with higher speeds near the surface low. Expect for the surface trough to drift north over the next 24 hours with convection. The surface low will dissipate. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. See the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the western half of Cuba and Central America. Further E, scattered moderate convection is over the E Caribbean E of 70W supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin, with highest speeds within 90 nm of the northern coast of Colombia and over the Gulf of Honduras. Expect for the tropical wave to continue moving west enhancing convection. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are the island mainly over the western portion. This activity will dissipate tonight. Expect for the convection currently over the east Caribbean to reach Hispaniola during the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Tropical Depression Emily and two tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic basin. See the sections above for details. Aside from these features, the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N44W. Expect for the remnants of Emily to continue moving north-northeast while weakening during the next 24 hours. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA