000 AXNT20 KNHC 011004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 603 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 01/0900 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Emily is inland near 28.3N 80.1W or about 43 nm north-northeast of Vero Beach Florida, moving east-northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Latest satellite imagery and NWS mosaic Doppler radar show isolated moderate convection within 100 nm south of the center. Emily is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across central and south Florida, with isolated storm totals up to 4 inches possible. Emily is expected to enter the Atlantic later this morning. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N29W to 06N30W, moving west at 10-15 kt. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model indicates broad troughing with this wave. This wave is embedded in an extensive area of Saharan dry air and dust inhibiting convection at this time. Isolated showers are observed where the wave interacts with the monsoon trough south of 11N and near 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N50W to 05N50W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust north of this wave, mainly north of 18N. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 07N-16N between 40W-55W. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 18N74W to 08N74W, moving west at 10-15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of moderate moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also depicts a trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust in the wave's environment. Isolated showers are limited to the northern and southernportions of the wave affecting Northern Colombia and the Windward Passage at this time. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 18N16W to a 1012 mb surface low near 12N27W to 09N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-11N between 33W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main feature is Tropical Depression Emily, currently exiting the Florida Peninsula. See the Special Features section above for details. A surface trough extends over the eastern Gulf waters from 27N83W to 26N90W. A diffluent flow aloft prevails south of this surface feature supporting isolated moderate convection over the southeast portion of the basin south of 26N and east of 88W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle easterly flow across the central and west Gulf while moderate to fresh cyclonic winds prevail east of 85W. Expect Emily to continue moving east away from the basin. Winds will weaken across the eastern Gulf as this happens. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the west-central Caribbean. See the section above for details. Isolated moderate convection is noted over western Cuba and surrounding waters. This activity is supported by a diffluent flow aloft and the proximity of T.D. Emily, currently centered near the east coast of Florida. Scattered showers are noted south 15N between 76W-83W supported by an upper-level low. Expect for the tropical wave and the proximity of the monsoon trough to be the generators of weather across the basin during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time as the tropical wave is moving away from the area. Expect drier conditions in 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical North Atlantic. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. A stationary front extends from 31N76W to 29N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm south of the front. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near 33N44W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA