000 AXNT20 KNHC 010517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 01/0300 UTC, the center of Tropical Depression Emily is inland near 27.5N 81.0W or about 30 nm west of Vero Beach Florida, moving east at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Latest satellite imagery and NWS mosaic Doppler radar show scattered moderate convection within 45 nm south of the center. Emily is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across southeast Florida, with isolated storm totals up to 8 inches possible. Emily is expected to enter the Atlantic today. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 18N28W to 06N29W, moving west at 15 kt. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model indicates broad troughing with this wave. This wave is embedded in an extensive area of Saharan dry air and dust inhibiting convection at this time. Isolated showers are observed where the wave interacts with the monsoon trough south of 11N between 28W-30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N48W to 05N49W, moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust N of this wave, north of 18N. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 07N-15N between 43W-52W. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis from 19N73W to 09N72W, moving west at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of moderate moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also depicts a trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection is limited to the areas where the wave is over land areas, currently affecting portions of Colombia and Haiti. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the west coast of Africa near 17N16W to 11N28W to 09N54W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and extends to 03N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N-11N between 34W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main feature is Tropical Depression Emily, currently centered over west-central Florida. See the Special Features section above for details. A surface trough extends over the eastern Gulf waters from 26N84W to 26N92W. A diffluent flow aloft prevails south of this surface feature supporting scattered moderate convection over the southeast portion of the basin south of 26N and east of 88W. Scatterometer data depicts a light to gentle easterly flow across the central and west Gulf while moderate to fresh cyclonic winds prevail east of 85W. Expect Emily to be in the west Atlantic in 24 hours. Winds will weaken across the eastern Gulf by then. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. See the section above for details. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Yucatan Channel, western Cuba, and surrounding waters. This activity is supported by a diffluent flow aloft and the proximity of T.D. Emily, currently centered over central Florida. Isolated showers are noted south 15N between 76W-83W supported by an upper-level low. Expect for the tropical wave and the proximity of the monsoon trough to be the generators of weather across the basin during the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered moderate convection is observed across the western portion of the island as the northern portion of a tropical wave moves through. This activity will move west with the wave tonight. Expect dryer conditions in 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical North Atlantic. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. A cold front extends from 31N77W to 28N81W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm south of the front. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near 34N44W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA