000 AXNT20 KNHC 010017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 817 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Emily is inland near 27.8N 81.7W or about 26 nm NW of Sebring, Florida at 31/2100 UTC moving ENE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery and NWS mosaic doppler radar show scattered moderate convection within 45 nm of the center. Emily is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches across southeast Florida, with isolated storm totals up to 8 inches possible. Slow strengthening is forecast after Emily emerges over the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 19N26W to 14N27W to 07N27W, moving west at 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows an exposed cyclonic vortex at 14N27W with no precipitation. This portion of the wave is embedded in an extensive area of Saharan dry air and dust. SSMI TPW imagery shows an area of moisture S of 13N. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model indicates broad troughing with this wave. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis S of 12N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 18N46W to 05N47W, moving west at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also depicts a large trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust N of this wave, N of 18N. widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis, S of 14N. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends from 18N69W to 10N70W, moving west at 15-20 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a large area of moderate moisture around this wave. The 700 mb guidance from the GFS model also depicts a small trough with this wave. The Saharan Air Layer imagery shows dry air and dust NE of this wave. widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the west coast of African coast near 15N17W to 11N30W to 10N40W to 09N50W, where scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ begins and extends to 10N60W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 32W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The main feature is Tropical Depression Emily over central Florida. See the special features section above. A surface trough is over Gulf of Mexico from 27N84W to 26N94W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Scattered moderate convection is also over the Straits of Florida, W Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over W Texas producing NE upper level flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Expect Emily to be in the W Atlantic near 30N78W in 24 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. See above. Airmass scattered moderate convection is noted over E Cuba, and Jamaica. Further S, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the SW Caribbean due to the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon trough. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered S of Jamaica near 15N78W. Expect the tropical wave and the monsoon trough to be the dominate weather features over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW portion of the island. This activity is expected to move W with the tropical wave. Expect dryer conditions in 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the tropical North Atlantic. See tropical waves section above. A cold front extends from 32N76W southwest to a 1012 mb low at 30N79W, and continues southwest to central Florida. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 nm S of the front to include the N Bahamas. A 1027 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 34N44W producing fair weather. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa